Tue, Feb 25, 2025·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Detroit Red Wings 3, Minnesota Wild 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 09 | 24 | 13 | 316 |
| MIN | 27 | 07 | 010 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:17MINMarco RossiPPAssists: Matt Boldy, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–1
- P1 11:11MINJakub LaukoAssists: Devin Shore, Yakov Trenin · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 10:12DETVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Marco Kasper · Snap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 13:12DETSimon EdvinssonAssists: Alex DeBrincat, J.T. Compher · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 11:35DETSimon EdvinssonGWGAssists: Albert Johansson, Elmer Soderblom · Slap, 0.06 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:56DETSimon Edvinsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 3:03DETElmer Soderblom: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:11MINMats Zuccarello: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:18DETDylan Larkin: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:18MINJake Middleton: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rossi won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestLarkin – Raymond – Kasper13:06
xG 0.69–0.26 (73%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Veleno – Soderblom11:05
xG 0.34–0.36 (49%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Motte – Fischer – Berggren6:08
xG 0.00–0.09 (2%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Kane – Compher – DeBrincat11:33
xG 0.11–0.43 (20%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHoll – Gustafsson9:36
xG 0.47–0.13 (78%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Johansson – Edvinsson16:56
xG 0.45–0.41 (53%)attempts 13–21goals 2–0
- Chiarot – Seider16:50
xG 0.14–0.48 (23%)attempts 5–19goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestShore – Trenin – Lauko7:31
xG 0.37–0.06 (85%)attempts 10–5goals 1–1
- Johansson – Hinostroza – Gaudreau10:28
xG 0.13–0.08 (63%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Foligno – Khusnutdinov – Ohgren6:38
xG 0.17–0.13 (56%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Zuccarello – Boldy – Rossi12:48
xG 0.40–0.66 (38%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Brodin15:22
xG 0.62–0.27 (70%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
- Bogosian – Chisholm10:33
xG 0.40–0.08 (83%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Brodin – Middleton2:13
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).