Thu, Feb 27, 2025·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Calgary Flames 0, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 07 | 010 | 011 | 028 |
| TBL | 17 | 08 | 27 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:15TBLNikita KucherovPPGWGAssists: Jake Guentzel, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P3 3:51TBLErik CernakAssists: Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P3 17:10TBLBrandon HagelENAssists: Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.82 xG0–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 18:22CGYNazem Kadri: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 0:51TBLBrandon Hagel: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:59CGYBlake Coleman: Interference2 min
- P2 12:05CGYKevin Bahl: Interference2 min
- P2 17:27TBLAnthony Cirelli: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:19TBLNikita Kucherov: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:53TBLMichael Eyssimont: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:53CGYJoel Hanley: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:53TBLNick Paul: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Paul won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Huberdeau – Coronato11:32
xG 1.02–0.80 (56%)attempts 21–11goals 0–1
- Lomberg – Rooney – Pospisil6:17
xG 0.21–0.08 (71%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Frost – Farabee – Sharangovich10:31
xG 0.15–0.16 (49%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Zary8:53
xG 0.20–0.23 (46%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Bahl16:04
xG 1.16–0.60 (66%)attempts 24–14goals 0–1
- Pachal – Solovyov12:22
xG 0.29–0.12 (71%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Weegar – Hanley13:41
xG 0.27–0.39 (41%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestCirelli – Hagel – Eyssimont2:45
xG 0.17–0.12 (59%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
- Paul – Chaffee – Goncalves8:20
xG 0.18–0.13 (58%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Guentzel – Point10:47
xG 0.15–0.15 (50%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Glendening – Girgensons – Eyssimont2:42
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hedman – Raddysh4:40
xG 0.08–0.04 (68%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Moser – Lilleberg2:12
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Hedman – Moser9:15
xG 0.13–0.13 (49%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).