Thu, Feb 27, 2025·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Winnipeg Jets 1, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 16 | 013 | 04 | 123 |
| NSH | 214 | 06 | 011 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:26NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 11:05WPGNeal PionkAssists: Rasmus Kupari, Alex Iafallo · Slap, 0.00 xG1–1
- P1 15:29NSHTommy NovakPPGWGAssists: Justin Barron, Luke Evangelista · Slap, 0.34 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:55NSHFilip Forsberg: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:58WPGAlex Iafallo: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:05WPGLogan Stanley: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:11NSHColton Sissons: Interference2 min
- P2 15:17NSHNick Blankenburg: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:02NSHFilip Forsberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:58WPGNeal Pionk: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stamkos won the faceoff against Namestnikov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Vilardi14:12
xG 0.97–0.37 (73%)attempts 22–12goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Ehlers – Perfetti8:26
xG 0.22–0.12 (65%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Iafallo – Kupari – Gustafsson4:36
xG 0.12–0.03 (83%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton6:57
xG 0.10–0.14 (42%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey16:13
xG 0.88–0.32 (73%)attempts 21–11goals 0–0
- Samberg – Pionk15:03
xG 0.46–0.29 (61%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Fleury – Stanley8:24
xG 0.25–0.68 (27%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg9:23
xG 0.53–0.38 (59%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Novak – Evangelista – Svechkov3:40
xG 0.33–0.20 (62%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Sissons – Novak – Evangelista2:03
xG 0.08–0.05 (61%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Marchessault – Forsberg2:45
xG 0.01–0.03 (33%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Del Gaizo13:36
xG 0.57–0.34 (63%)attempts 17–11goals 1–1
- Englund – Barron13:47
xG 0.34–0.31 (52%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Skjei – Blankenburg14:11
xG 0.41–1.03 (28%)attempts 7–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).