Sat, Mar 1, 2025·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Calgary Flames 0, Florida Panthers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 06 | 06 | 011 | 023 |
| FLA | 016 | 219 | 17 | 342 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:47FLAJonah GadjovichGWGAssists: A.J. Greer, Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–1
- P2 19:24FLAEvan RodriguesAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Sam Bennett · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P3 16:08FLAMackie SamoskevichAssists: Sam Bennett, Evan Rodrigues · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 10:28FLACarter Verhaeghe: Boarding2 min
- P1 11:38CGYRasmus Andersson: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 16:07FLACarter Verhaeghe: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:07FLAAaron Ekblad: Elbowing2 min
- P1 16:07FLAAaron Ekblad: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:07CGYMartin Pospisil: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:07CGYNazem Kadri: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:47CGYMorgan Frost: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 9:47CGYYegor Sharangovich: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:04CGYIlya Solovyov: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:00CGYBrayden Pachal: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00FLAA.J. Greer: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00FLAA.J. Greer: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against Rooney
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHuberdeau – Frost – Coronato5:22
xG 0.46–0.01 (99%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Sharangovich10:17
xG 0.42–0.18 (70%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Lomberg – Rooney – Farabee2:29
xG 0.04–0.02 (70%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Pospisil2:01
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Andersson – Bahl13:33
xG 0.40–0.37 (52%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Weegar – Hanley18:14
xG 0.44–0.75 (37%)attempts 11–18goals 0–1
- Pachal – Solovyov7:33
xG 0.29–0.76 (28%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart11:31
xG 0.93–0.16 (85%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Nosek – Greer – Gadjovich8:12
xG 0.84–0.49 (63%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Bennett – Rodrigues – Samoskevich11:33
xG 0.35–0.27 (56%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
- Boqvist – Luostarinen – Lundell9:53
xG 0.09–0.29 (24%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Balinskis9:48
xG 1.02–0.13 (89%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Schmidt – Forsling2:14
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Ekblad – Forsling13:42
xG 0.52–0.28 (65%)attempts 14–9goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).