Sat, Mar 1, 2025·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
San Jose Sharks 3, Ottawa Senators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 012 | 210 | 115 | 337 |
| OTT | 18 | 016 | 48 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:05OTTShane PintoSHAssists: Ridly Greig · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 5:17SJSTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Will Smith, Macklin Celebrini · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 9:47SJSTimothy LiljegrenPPAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Klim Kostin · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 1:26OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Tim Stützle, Jake Sanderson · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 3:00OTTTim StützleAssists: Ridly Greig · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 8:31OTTDavid PerronGWGAssists: Thomas Chabot, Drake Batherson · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 18:33SJSWill SmithPPAssists: William Eklund, Macklin Celebrini · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–4
- P3 19:00OTTMichael AmadioENAssists: Artem Zub · Wrist, 0.62 xG3–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:49OTTMatthew Highmore: Holding2 min
- P1 16:29SJSTy Dellandrea: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:01SJSJake Walman: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:01OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:45OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 5:53SJSTy Dellandrea: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:35OTTThomas Chabot: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:50SJSMario Ferraro: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 0:26SJSCollin Graf: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 17:45OTTRidly Greig: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Stützle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestKostin – Sturm – Graf6:43
xG 0.38–0.03 (93%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Eklund – Celebrini10:49
xG 0.59–0.25 (71%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Wennberg – Zetterlund – Smith10:12
xG 0.17–0.15 (54%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Kunin – Dellandrea9:19
xG 0.21–0.31 (40%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWalman – Liljegren9:01
xG 0.63–0.11 (85%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Ferraro – Liljegren3:32
xG 0.50–0.01 (99%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Ferraro – Mukhamadullin12:00
xG 0.48–0.07 (87%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Highmore – Gaudette – Gregor4:28
xG 0.01–0.13 (6%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Perron – Norris – Batherson9:12
xG 0.16–0.48 (25%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Amadio – Pinto – Greig8:58
xG 0.19–0.52 (26%)attempts 7–18goals 0–0
- Giroux – Tkachuk – Stützle10:02
xG 0.25–0.58 (30%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub15:51
xG 0.62–0.50 (56%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Jensen – Chabot14:39
xG 0.56–0.78 (42%)attempts 17–21goals 1–0
- Hamonic – Matinpalo12:30
xG 0.14–0.63 (18%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).