Sat, Mar 1, 2025·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Los Angeles Kings 1, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 18 | 010 | 08 | 126 |
| STL | 210 | 110 | 114 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:43LAKKevin FialaPPAssists: Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar · Slap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 9:37STLColton ParaykoAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Dylan Holloway · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 18:07STLPavel BuchnevichGWGAssists: Robert Thomas, Jake Neighbours · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 9:27STLZachary BolducAssists: Mathieu Joseph · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 1:34STLDylan HollowayAssists: Brayden Schenn, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:51STLRadek Faksa: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 4:02LAKVladislav Gavrikov: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 11:31LAKWarren Foegele: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:30LAKJacob Moverare: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:30STLJordan Kyrou: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – Turcotte – Laferriere6:40
xG 0.45–0.20 (69%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Turcotte4:01
xG 0.26–0.20 (56%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Fiala – Byfield – Laferriere3:12
xG 0.09–0.08 (52%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Fiala – Kempe – Byfield5:56
xG 0.14–0.38 (27%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Doughty – Edmundson16:44
xG 0.62–0.67 (48%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- Gavrikov – Anderson17:46
xG 0.53–0.72 (42%)attempts 20–15goals 0–0
- Moverare – Spence9:38
xG 0.12–0.61 (16%)attempts 6–14goals 0–2
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Thomas – Neighbours10:23
xG 0.76–0.29 (72%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Schenn – Kyrou – Holloway12:20
xG 0.84–0.40 (68%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Faksa – Walker – Toropchenko9:12
xG 0.20–0.09 (70%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Joseph – Bolduc10:46
xG 0.36–0.29 (55%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Parayko13:49
xG 0.81–0.16 (83%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- Suter – Leddy14:10
xG 0.98–0.65 (60%)attempts 16–18goals 3–0
- Faulk – Broberg15:40
xG 0.43–0.48 (47%)attempts 7–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).