Mon, Mar 3, 2025·Centre Bell, Montreal
Buffalo Sabres 3, Montréal Canadiens 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 09 | 114 | 213 | 00 | 336 |
| MTL | 38 | 06 | 05 | 11 | 420 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:42MTLCole CaufieldPPAssists: Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson · Snap, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 11:41MTLNick SuzukiSHAssists: Mike Matheson · Snap, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 13:42MTLJuraj SlafkovskýPPAssists: Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson · Snap, 0.12 xG0–3
- P2 18:07BUFAlex TuchAssists: Dylan Cozens, Dennis Gilbert · Snap, 0.22 xG1–3
- P3 3:24BUFTage ThompsonAssists: JJ Peterka, Jacob Bryson · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 18:59BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: JJ Peterka, Jiri Kulich · Snap, 0.06 xG3–3
- OT 1:21MTLMike MathesonGWGAssists: Juraj Slafkovský, Nick Suzuki · Snap, 0.09 xG3–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:57BUFDylan Cozens: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:22BUFBowen Byram: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 10:03MTLChristian Dvorak: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:03MTLAlexandre Carrier: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:03BUFRasmus Dahlin: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:37BUFRasmus Dahlin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 14:24BUFJJ Peterka: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:10MTLAlex Newhook: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 14:32MTLJayden Struble: Interference2 min
- P3 9:38MTLAlex Newhook: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:42BUFRasmus Dahlin: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Evans won the faceoff against Kulich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Peterka – Kulich9:01
xG 0.81–0.22 (78%)attempts 18–4goals 1–0
- McLeod – Quinn – Benson5:18
xG 0.54–0.15 (79%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Lafferty – Malenstyn – Krebs7:36
xG 0.21–0.08 (72%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Tuch – Greenway – Cozens9:18
xG 0.71–0.84 (46%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Byram13:37
xG 1.22–0.41 (75%)attempts 22–9goals 1–0
- Byram – Power2:39
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Bryson – Power9:18
xG 0.58–0.49 (54%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Laine – Newhook – Beck7:13
xG 0.24–0.26 (48%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Anderson – Dvorak7:13
xG 0.36–0.41 (47%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský9:58
xG 0.65–0.79 (45%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Armia – Evans – Heineman7:35
xG 0.26–0.58 (31%)attempts 4–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Savard – Xhekaj8:55
xG 0.51–0.61 (46%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Matheson – Carrier13:22
xG 0.62–0.82 (43%)attempts 13–20goals 0–1
- Carrier – Xhekaj2:38
xG 0.21–0.54 (28%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).