Mon, Mar 3, 2025·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
San Jose Sharks 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 07 | 03 | 29 | 03 | 2 | 322 |
| TOR | 010 | 211 | 02 | 04 | 1 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:28TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: Mitch Marner, William Nylander · Tip-in, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 19:55TORMatthew KniesPPAssists: Auston Matthews, John Tavares · Tip-in, 0.29 xG0–2
- P3 2:23SJSJack ThompsonAssists: Alexander Wennberg, William Eklund · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 10:10SJSTyler ToffoliAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Shakir Mukhamadullin · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. TOR Mitch Marner stopped
- 2. SJS Macklin Celebrini stopped
- 3. TOR Auston Matthews stopped
- 4. SJS Will Smith stopped
- 5. TOR William Nylander scored
- 6. SJS Tyler Toffoli scored
- 7. TOR John Tavares stopped
- 8. SJS Fabian Zetterlund scored
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:10TORJohn Tavares: Interference2 min
- P1 8:47SJSCarl Grundstrom: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:58SJSMario Ferraro: Holding2 min
- P1 16:58TORPhilippe Myers: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:58SJSMario Ferraro: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:30TORMax Domi: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:06SJSTyler Toffoli: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:40SJSLuke Kunin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 0:00SJSLuke Kunin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dellandrea won the faceoff against Kampf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestZetterlund – Smith – Celebrini5:59
xG 0.59–0.02 (96%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Wennberg – Eklund3:49
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–3goals 2–0
- Toffoli – Eklund – Celebrini7:10
xG 0.21–0.13 (61%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Wennberg – Zetterlund – Smith6:30
xG 0.21–0.30 (42%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerraro – Mukhamadullin14:19
xG 0.71–0.41 (63%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Ferraro – Liljegren3:09
xG 0.27–0.12 (69%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Walman – Liljegren13:51
xG 0.29–0.18 (62%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Nylander – Holmberg11:03
xG 0.42–0.13 (76%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Marner – Matthews – Knies12:46
xG 0.53–0.51 (51%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Domi – Robertson – McMann9:00
xG 0.23–0.23 (50%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Kampf – Dewar4:52
xG 0.17–0.22 (44%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Myers15:28
xG 0.53–0.43 (55%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Timmins – Benoit9:13
xG 0.12–0.09 (57%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- McCabe – Benoit2:13
xG 0.12–0.16 (43%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).