Tue, Mar 4, 2025·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 19 | 18 | 016 | 233 |
| TBL | 210 | 218 | 212 | 640 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:30TBLMitchell ChaffeeAssists: Emil Lilleberg, Darren Raddysh · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 1:37TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P1 17:20CBJZach WerenskiUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 1:27TBLJake GuentzelGWGAssists: Victor Hedman, Brayden Point · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 6:36TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Darren Raddysh · Slap, 0.06 xG1–4
- P2 10:49CBJZach WerenskiSHAssists: Adam Fantilli, Kent Johnson · Snap, 0.30 xG2–4
- P3 9:44TBLVictor HedmanPPAssists: Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.11 xG2–5
- P3 17:53TBLJake GuentzelENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.55 xG2–6
Penalties (8)
- P2 9:06CBJMathieu Olivier: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:06CBJMathieu Olivier: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:06CBJMathieu Olivier: Misconduct10 min
- P2 15:47TBLRyan McDonagh: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:09TBLErik Cernak: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:09CBJJames van Riemsdyk: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:55CBJDamon Severson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:18TBLJ.J. Moser: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danforth won the faceoff against Paul
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestOlivier – Danforth – Aston-Reese9:17
xG 1.57–0.12 (93%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Marchenko – Voronkov – Fantilli10:36
xG 0.42–0.45 (48%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Kuraly – LaBate9:29
xG 0.12–0.30 (29%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
- Jenner – Chinakhov – Johnson9:52
xG 0.38–0.69 (36%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Fabbro20:07
xG 2.09–0.96 (69%)attempts 30–19goals 1–1
- Provorov – Christiansen2:33
xG 0.09–0.06 (60%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Severson – Christiansen11:38
xG 0.21–0.33 (39%)attempts 14–19goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Guentzel – Point11:39
xG 1.09–0.36 (75%)attempts 16–18goals 2–0
- Atkinson – Glendening – Eyssimont7:10
xG 0.25–0.12 (68%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Girgensons – Cirelli – Hagel9:55
xG 0.35–0.22 (61%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Paul – Chaffee – Goncalves10:28
xG 0.19–1.50 (11%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Raddysh4:48
xG 0.54–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Cernak12:48
xG 0.44–0.23 (66%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Raddysh – Lilleberg12:28
xG 0.38–0.38 (50%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).