Tue, Mar 4, 2025·UBS Arena, Elmont
Winnipeg Jets 2, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 010 | 113 | 15 | 228 |
| NYI | 117 | 17 | 15 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:49NYIKyle PalmieriPPAssists: Brock Nelson, Bo Horvat · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 1:33NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Maxim Tsyplakov, Noah Dobson · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–2
- P2 8:48WPGJosh MorrisseyPPAssists: Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor · Slap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 4:03NYIRyan PulockGWGAssists: Anders Lee, Casey Cizikas · Slap, 0.01 xG1–3
- P3 12:51WPGNikolaj EhlersPPAssists: Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:49NYIRyan Pulock: Holding2 min
- P1 15:00NYIAnders Lee: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:00WPGAdam Lowry: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 16:26WPGNino Niederreiter: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:56NYIAnders Lee: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:20WPGMason Appleton: Holding2 min
- P3 11:23NYIJean-Gabriel Pageau: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNamestnikov – Ehlers – Perfetti10:20
xG 0.69–0.26 (72%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton12:56
xG 0.67–0.27 (71%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Iafallo – Barron – Kupari5:00
xG 0.14–0.07 (66%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi12:46
xG 0.22–1.05 (18%)attempts 3–23goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Fleury11:29
xG 0.75–0.30 (72%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey15:14
xG 0.60–0.61 (50%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
- Stanley – Pionk16:26
xG 0.22–0.59 (27%)attempts 19–23goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNelson – Holmstrom – Tsyplakov10:46
xG 0.45–0.11 (81%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Palmieri – Duclair – Horvat10:03
xG 0.53–0.41 (56%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Fasching – MacLean – Gatcomb6:41
xG 0.06–0.21 (24%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Lee – Pageau11:45
xG 0.19–0.62 (23%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Dobson14:03
xG 0.98–0.16 (86%)attempts 21–9goals 1–0
- DeAngelo – Romanov16:49
xG 0.71–0.96 (42%)attempts 13–25goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Pulock10:51
xG 0.02–0.71 (3%)attempts 5–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).