Wed, Mar 5, 2025·Madison Square Garden, New York
Washington Capitals 3, New York Rangers 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 18 | 07 | 18 | 13 | 326 |
| NYR | 17 | 16 | 03 | 01 | 217 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:04WSHPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Tom Wilson · Snap, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 13:37NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Zac Jones, Alexis Lafrenière · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 8:05NYRSam CarrickAssists: K'Andre Miller, Will Borgen · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 10:28WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Ethen Frank · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- OT 4:07WSHTom WilsonGWGAssists: Dylan Strome · Tip-in, 0.19 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 15:30WSHEthen Frank: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 4:42WSHAlex Ovechkin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 8:38NYRUrho Vaakanainen: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:54WSHBrandon Duhaime: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:54NYRSam Carrick: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:58WSHMatt Roy: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:58WSHMatt Roy: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:58NYRJuuso Parssinen: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:45NYRVincent Trocheck: Holding2 min
- P3 8:56NYRZac Jones: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:28NYRWill Borgen: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eller won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Mangiapane – Raddysh6:37
xG 0.28–0.11 (72%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Dowd – Duhaime – Frank4:31
xG 0.15–0.04 (78%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Wilson – Dubois – McMichael8:38
xG 0.34–0.43 (44%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
- Ovechkin – Strome – Protas8:37
xG 0.16–0.49 (25%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Chychrun6:07
xG 0.31–0.01 (96%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Roy – Fehérváry9:48
xG 0.35–0.22 (61%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Sandin2:34
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière10:59
xG 0.82–0.24 (77%)attempts 21–7goals 1–0
- Brodzinski – Parssinen – Othmann6:20
xG 0.19–0.19 (50%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Miller – Cuylle9:34
xG 0.33–0.41 (45%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Carrick – Berard – Rempe7:39
xG 0.21–0.29 (42%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestVaakanainen – Schneider14:13
xG 0.57–0.46 (56%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- de Haan – Jones10:04
xG 0.36–0.24 (60%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Borgen – Miller14:30
xG 0.38–0.72 (35%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).