Thu, Mar 6, 2025·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Utah Hockey Club 4, Detroit Red Wings 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 16 | 17 | 26 | 419 |
| DET | 215 | 014 | 011 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:08UTADylan GuentherAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Michael Kesselring · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 3:17DETDylan LarkinAssists: Elmer Soderblom, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 8:49DETJonatan BerggrenAssists: Tyler Motte, Patrick Kane · Snap, 0.29 xG1–2
- P2 13:01UTANick SchmaltzPPAssists: Barrett Hayton, Clayton Keller · Snap, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 2:55UTAKevin StenlundGWGAssists: Michael Kesselring · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 7:51UTALawson CrouseAssists: Jack McBain, Josh Doan · Snap, 0.23 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P2 5:59DETAlex DeBrincat: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:48UTAKevin Stenlund: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:43DETAlbert Johansson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:06UTAMikhail Sergachev: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:19UTALogan Cooley: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:37DETPatrick Kane: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rasmussen won the faceoff against McBain
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Hockey Club
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – Hayton – Guenther7:59
xG 0.40–0.35 (53%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Crouse – McBain – Doan8:35
xG 0.59–0.64 (48%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- O'Brien – Stenlund – Carcone8:02
xG 0.40–0.51 (44%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – Cooley12:04
xG 0.18–0.93 (17%)attempts 5–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Cole – Kesselring11:56
xG 0.59–0.71 (45%)attempts 13–14goals 2–1
- Maatta – Durzi13:13
xG 0.51–0.67 (43%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Marino – Sergachev12:15
xG 0.72–1.13 (39%)attempts 15–18goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestLarkin – Raymond – Kasper12:41
xG 0.90–0.17 (84%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Kane – Compher – DeBrincat10:37
xG 0.83–0.17 (83%)attempts 17–5goals 0–1
- Tarasenko – Rasmussen – Soderblom8:45
xG 0.48–0.28 (64%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHoll – Gustafsson10:00
xG 1.28–0.25 (84%)attempts 20–5goals 0–1
- Chiarot – Seider14:27
xG 0.76–0.37 (67%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Gustafsson – Edvinsson2:52
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).