Thu, Mar 6, 2025·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Winnipeg Jets 4, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 210 | 29 | 08 | 427 |
| PHI | 08 | 06 | 18 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:32WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Gabriel Vilardi, Kyle Connor · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 15:13WPGNikolaj EhlersPPGWGAssists: Mark Scheifele, Gabriel Vilardi · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 5:28WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Mark Scheifele, Gabriel Vilardi · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–0
- P2 9:03WPGAdam LowryAssists: Mason Appleton, Nino Niederreiter · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–0
- P3 17:18PHIMatvei MichkovUnassisted · Snap, 0.06 xG4–1
Penalties (3)
- P1 7:47PHIMatvei Michkov: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 14:30PHITyson Foerster: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:11WPGNino Niederreiter: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Namestnikov won the faceoff against Laughton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNamestnikov – Ehlers – Perfetti11:50
xG 0.83–0.16 (84%)attempts 18–1goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi13:00
xG 0.65–0.44 (59%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
- Iafallo – Barron – Gustafsson9:21
xG 0.47–0.36 (57%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton12:33
xG 0.50–0.52 (49%)attempts 11–21goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey16:59
xG 1.17–0.58 (67%)attempts 23–17goals 0–0
- Samberg – Pionk19:29
xG 0.81–0.47 (63%)attempts 17–16goals 1–0
- Miller – Stanley15:24
xG 0.37–0.45 (45%)attempts 9–22goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestDeslauriers – Poehling – Pelletier7:31
xG 0.48–0.03 (94%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Cates – Brink – Foerster9:25
xG 0.46–0.24 (65%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Laughton – Konecny – Kuzmenko7:15
xG 0.19–0.30 (39%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Laughton – Kuzmenko – Michkov3:35
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – York10:20
xG 0.80–0.28 (74%)attempts 20–6goals 0–1
- Seeler – Ristolainen5:08
xG 0.36–0.17 (68%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Zamula – York4:59
xG 0.14–0.05 (75%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).