Thu, Mar 6, 2025·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Seattle Kraken 3, Nashville Predators 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 15 | 07 | 213 | 325 |
| NSH | 117 | 311 | 16 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:32SEAAdam LarssonAssists: Vince Dunn, Kaapo Kakko · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 7:15NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Colton Sissons · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 3:33NSHBrady SkjeiAssists: Steven Stamkos, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 5:48NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Marc Del Gaizo · Deflected, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 19:51NSHMichael McCarronGWGAssists: Ozzy Wiesblatt, Justin Barron · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 13:31SEAJared McCannPPAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Andre Burakovsky · Slap, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 17:15NSHLuke EvangelistaENAssists: Steven Stamkos, Spencer Stastney · Wrist, 0.72 xG2–5
- P3 18:14SEAMichael EyssimontAssists: Josh Mahura · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 8:02SEAAdam Larsson: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:58NSHJake Lucchini: Holding2 min
- P3 8:10NSHSteven Stamkos: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:37NSHFilip Forsberg: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Beniers
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- Eyssimont – Melanson – Meyers7:22
xG 0.33–0.31 (52%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Burakovsky – McCann – Wright5:40
xG 0.13–0.18 (41%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Eberle – Stephenson – Tolvanen9:32
xG 0.25–0.48 (34%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Kakko – Beniers9:26
xG 0.26–0.74 (26%)attempts 10–13goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- Larsson – Dunn15:32
xG 0.60–0.77 (44%)attempts 21–11goals 1–1
- Oleksiak – Montour14:35
xG 0.42–0.81 (34%)attempts 10–22goals 0–1
- Mahura – Evans11:40
xG 0.12–0.72 (14%)attempts 5–19goals 0–2
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJankowski – Smith – Svechkov10:10
xG 0.84–0.10 (89%)attempts 19–5goals 0–1
- Stamkos – O'Reilly – Evangelista11:40
xG 0.81–0.40 (67%)attempts 12–16goals 1–1
- McCarron – Lucchini – Wiesblatt8:22
xG 0.37–0.25 (60%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Marchessault – Forsberg – Sissons9:34
xG 0.23–0.53 (30%)attempts 6–10goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnglund – Barron15:02
xG 0.73–0.11 (87%)attempts 21–9goals 2–0
- Stastney – Del Gaizo14:11
xG 0.96–0.59 (62%)attempts 20–16goals 0–0
- Skjei – Blankenburg15:50
xG 0.67–0.83 (45%)attempts 13–19goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).