Thu, Mar 6, 2025·Ball Arena, Denver
San Jose Sharks 3, Colorado Avalanche 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 19 | 06 | 219 | 334 |
| COL | 313 | 213 | 26 | 732 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:19COLJoel KivirantaSHAssists: Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 6:43COLCale MakarPPAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Nathan MacKinnon · Slap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 10:08SJSFabian ZetterlundPPAssists: Collin Graf · Snap, 0.33 xG1–2
- P1 19:57COLJonathan DrouinPPAssists: Martin Necas, Artturi Lehkonen · Snap, 0.23 xG1–3
- P2 0:40COLMartin NecasPPGWGAssists: Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon · Slap, 0.06 xG1–4
- P2 10:54COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Cale Makar, Josh Manson · Snap, 0.19 xG1–5
- P3 5:21COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Cale Makar · Snap, 0.30 xG1–6
- P3 8:10SJSMacklin CelebriniPPAssists: Will Smith, William Eklund · Snap, 0.12 xG2–6
- P3 9:00COLCale MakarAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–7
- P3 17:24SJSWilliam EklundAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Alexander Wennberg · Snap, 0.21 xG3–7
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:26COLMartin Necas: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:30SJSTy Dellandrea: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 8:27COLDevon Toews: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:39COLJoel Kiviranta: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:38SJSTy Dellandrea: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:37SJSMario Ferraro: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:27SJSMacklin Celebrini: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:31COLJosh Manson: Holding2 min
- P3 6:13COLKeaton Middleton: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Drury won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Wennberg – Eklund9:21
xG 0.43–0.34 (55%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Goodrow – Grundstrom – Kovalenko6:24
xG 0.31–0.46 (40%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Kostin – Dellandrea – Graf7:45
xG 0.07–0.47 (14%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
- Zetterlund – Smith – Celebrini12:24
xG 0.23–1.72 (12%)attempts 12–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Mukhamadullin3:28
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Ferraro – Liljegren3:30
xG 0.56–0.82 (40%)attempts 4–9goals 1–1
- Schuldt – Thompson13:21
xG 0.28–0.55 (33%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas11:25
xG 2.03–0.05 (98%)attempts 23–3goals 2–0
- Colton – Drury – Kiviranta8:19
xG 0.48–0.28 (63%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Drouin – Nichushkin – Mittelstadt9:18
xG 0.20–0.20 (50%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Vesey – Kelly – O'Connor8:22
xG 0.21–0.42 (33%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar9:53
xG 1.17–0.23 (84%)attempts 16–2goals 2–0
- Middleton – Girard7:42
xG 0.71–0.41 (63%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Lindgren – Middleton2:39
xG 0.33–0.09 (79%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).