Sat, Mar 8, 2025·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Dallas Stars 4, Edmonton Oilers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 18 | 07 | 310 | 425 |
| EDM | 38 | 29 | 010 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:48DALWyatt JohnstonPPAssists: Jason Robertson, Mikko Rantanen · Snap, 0.27 xG1–0
- P1 6:12EDMZach HymanAssists: Connor McDavid, Darnell Nurse · Snap, 0.24 xG1–1
- P1 12:26EDMZach HymanAssists: Jake Walman · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–2
- P1 17:42EDMViktor ArvidssonAssists: Evan Bouchard, Leon Draisaitl · Slap, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 5:20EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–4
- P2 17:40EDMConnor BrownGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.11 xG1–5
- P3 5:06DALMikko RantanenPPAssists: Matt Duchene, Thomas Harley · Snap, 0.12 xG2–5
- P3 5:17DALJamie BennAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Cody Ceci · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–5
- P3 9:18DALMathew DumbaAssists: Mason Marchment, Mikael Granlund · Slap, 0.03 xG4–5
Penalties (3)
- P1 4:24EDMLeon Draisaitl: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 6:12EDMKasperi Kapanen: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:54EDMBrett Kulak: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Hintz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRantanen – Steel – Bäck2:16
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Steel – Bäck – Bourque5:47
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Marchment12:04
xG 0.77–0.80 (49%)attempts 16–14goals 1–2
- Benn – Dadonov – Bourque3:48
xG 0.13–0.31 (29%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDumba – Bichsel13:18
xG 0.56–0.44 (56%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Lyubushkin – Harley15:12
xG 0.59–0.85 (41%)attempts 15–19goals 0–3
- Ceci – Lindell18:51
xG 0.41–1.37 (23%)attempts 11–21goals 1–2
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid13:02
xG 0.98–0.24 (80%)attempts 18–6goals 2–0
- Draisaitl – Arvidsson – Podkolzin11:49
xG 0.69–0.43 (62%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Henrique – Brown – Janmark9:12
xG 0.30–0.11 (74%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Perry – Kapanen – Jones7:04
xG 0.01–0.53 (2%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Walman16:46
xG 1.50–0.15 (91%)attempts 22–8goals 2–0
- Kulak – Bouchard15:31
xG 0.57–0.45 (56%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- Kulak – Nurse2:55
xG 0.02–0.11 (13%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).