Sun, Mar 9, 2025·Capital One Arena, Washington
Seattle Kraken 2, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 114 | 19 | 09 | 232 |
| WSH | 07 | 26 | 211 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:37SEAShane WrightAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Adam Larsson · Snap, 0.22 xG1–0
- P2 0:35WSHMartin FehérváryAssists: Aliaksei Protas, Connor McMichael · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 2:51WSHDylan StromeAssists: Rasmus Sandin, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 7:23SEAJordan EberleAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Eeli Tolvanen · Snap, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 15:44WSHConnor McMichaelGWGAssists: John Carlson, Jakob Chychrun · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 18:31WSHAlex OvechkinENAssists: Tom Wilson, Nic Dowd · Backhand, 0.57 xG2–4
Penalties (17)
- P1 7:04WSHDylan Strome: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:46SEAAndre Burakovsky: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 14:38WSHLars Eller: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:25WSHTom Wilson: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:28SEATye Kartye: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:28WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:28SEAJosh Mahura: Holding2 min
- P3 6:28SEABrandon Montour: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:28WSHPierre-Luc Dubois: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:28WSHTrevor van Riemsdyk: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:28SEAMichael Eyssimont: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:28WSHBrandon Duhaime: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:28SEAJohn Hayden: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:28WSHBrandon Duhaime: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:28SEAJohn Hayden: Misconduct10 min
- P3 6:28WSHBrandon Duhaime: Misconduct10 min
- P3 6:28WSHJohn Carlson: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beniers won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Stephenson – Tolvanen12:04
xG 0.88–0.33 (73%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Burakovsky – McCann – Wright6:49
xG 0.51–0.19 (73%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Schwartz – Kakko – Beniers10:12
xG 0.55–0.44 (56%)attempts 14–9goals 0–3
- Hayden – Eyssimont – Kartye4:56
xG 0.26–0.23 (53%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn15:03
xG 0.96–0.47 (67%)attempts 21–17goals 1–0
- Oleksiak – Montour15:54
xG 1.04–0.71 (60%)attempts 23–11goals 1–2
- Larsson – Evans3:40
xG 0.06–0.05 (52%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Dubois – McMichael – Protas9:16
xG 0.44–0.41 (52%)attempts 8–12goals 2–0
- Dowd – Beauvillier – Duhaime4:34
xG 0.30–0.28 (52%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Eller – Mangiapane – Raddysh7:14
xG 0.23–0.33 (41%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Wilson – Strome9:49
xG 0.29–0.98 (23%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Chychrun3:10
xG 0.26–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Sandin2:29
xG 0.16–0.07 (70%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Chychrun – Sandin3:47
xG 0.15–0.07 (68%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).