Sun, Mar 9, 2025·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Minnesota Wild 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 07 | 16 | 29 | 322 |
| MIN | 010 | 010 | 110 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 15:22PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Kris Letang, Matt Grzelcyk · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–0
- P3 9:21PITSidney CrosbyGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson, Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P3 14:54MINRyan HartmanPPAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 18:47PITSidney CrosbyENAssists: Tristan Jarry · Poke, 0.74 xG3–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 18:00PITMatt Grzelcyk: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:22MINMats Zuccarello: Interference2 min
- P2 1:54PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:23PITVladislav Kolyachonok: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 13:24MINZach Bogosian: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 17:29PITSidney Crosby: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:56PITEvgeni Malkin: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Gaudreau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Bemstrom – Dewar4:40
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Acciari – Dewar – Lizotte2:40
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Malkin – Novak – Tomasino6:39
xG 0.22–0.30 (42%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Malkin – Hayes – Tomasino3:35
xG 0.11–0.22 (33%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Kolyachonok2:20
xG 0.10–0.04 (74%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Timmins – Kolyachonok6:46
xG 0.15–0.24 (39%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Grzelcyk13:27
xG 0.20–0.54 (27%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Boldy – Rossi6:15
xG 1.09–0.10 (91%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Johansson – Zuccarello – Gaudreau4:18
xG 0.32–0.05 (87%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Hinostroza – Boldy – Rossi4:11
xG 0.31–0.12 (72%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Foligno – Hartman4:44
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiddleton – Faber15:26
xG 1.55–0.34 (82%)attempts 26–15goals 0–1
- Spurgeon – Chisholm11:52
xG 0.73–0.23 (76%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Merrill10:04
xG 0.11–0.19 (36%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).