Sun, Mar 9, 2025·Madison Square Garden, New York
Columbus Blue Jackets 7, New York Rangers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 14 | 414 | 210 | 728 |
| NYR | 19 | 29 | 017 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:56CBJJustin DanforthAssists: Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 19:31NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, Vincent Trocheck · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 3:07CBJAdam FantilliAssists: Dmitri Voronkov · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 3:33CBJAdam FantilliAssists: Dmitri Voronkov · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–1
- P2 6:54NYRBraden SchneiderSHAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Mika Zibanejad · Snap, 0.12 xG3–2
- P2 7:36NYRChris KreiderSHAssists: Mika Zibanejad · Snap, 0.27 xG3–3
- P2 17:03CBJMathieu OlivierGWGAssists: Zach Werenski, Dante Fabbro · Tip-in, 0.07 xG4–3
- P2 18:47CBJDante FabbroAssists: Sean Kuraly, James van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.12 xG5–3
- P3 10:17CBJKent JohnsonAssists: Mathieu Olivier, Boone Jenner · Deflected, 0.11 xG6–3
- P3 11:51CBJAdam FantilliAssists: Kirill Marchenko, Damon Severson · Snap, 0.22 xG7–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 11:46CBJKent Johnson: Interference2 min
- P1 19:38CBJDenton Mateychuk: Interference2 min
- P2 6:13NYRWill Cuylle: Holding2 min
- P3 5:57CBJIvan Provorov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 12:41CBJLuke Kunin: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:41CBJLuke Kunin: Boarding2 min
- P3 12:41NYRWill Borgen: Instigator2 min
- P3 12:41CBJLuke Kunin: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:41NYRWill Borgen: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:41NYRWill Borgen: Instigator misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Carrick
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMarchenko – Voronkov – Fantilli10:06
xG 1.04–0.43 (71%)attempts 14–9goals 3–0
- Jenner – Olivier – Johnson9:14
xG 0.40–0.08 (84%)attempts 12–4goals 2–0
- van Riemsdyk – Kuraly – Aston-Reese7:53
xG 0.57–0.51 (53%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Olivier – Danforth – Chinakhov2:18
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Provorov8:03
xG 0.74–0.18 (80%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Werenski – Fabbro14:54
xG 0.84–0.45 (65%)attempts 15–11goals 3–1
- Provorov – Mateychuk9:22
xG 0.42–0.39 (52%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Carrick – Berard8:05
xG 0.42–0.22 (66%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Carrick – Rempe – Othmann2:06
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière11:11
xG 0.45–0.51 (47%)attempts 10–10goals 1–2
- Zibanejad – Miller – Cuylle8:21
xG 0.27–0.59 (31%)attempts 7–6goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- Soucy – Vaakanainen2:03
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Borgen – Miller14:04
xG 0.43–0.56 (43%)attempts 14–11goals 1–2
- Vaakanainen – Schneider17:03
xG 0.77–1.06 (42%)attempts 15–18goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).