Tue, Mar 11, 2025·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Vegas Golden Knights 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 09 | 19 | 119 | 00 | 237 |
| PIT | 14 | 18 | 04 | 11 | 317 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:48PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Rickard Rakell, Kevin Hayes · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 3:02PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 14:29VGKPavel DorofeyevPPAssists: Noah Hanifin, Jack Eichel · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 19:53VGKNoah HanifinAssists: Mark Stone, Pavel Dorofeyev · Slap, 0.07 xG2–2
- OT 0:49PITErik KarlssonGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:36VGKVictor Olofsson: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:57VGKTomas Hertl: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:04VGKNicolas Roy: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:09PITPhilip Tomasino: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 0:47VGKZach Whitecloud: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSaad – Hertl – Dorofeyev13:08
xG 0.94–0.19 (83%)attempts 26–5goals 0–1
- Smith – Kolesar – Roy10:23
xG 0.51–0.04 (93%)attempts 18–4goals 0–0
- Smith – Olofsson – Roy2:24
xG 0.05–0.04 (59%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Pearson – Rondbjerg – Schwindt3:12
xG 0.06–0.17 (26%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Hague17:26
xG 0.87–0.24 (78%)attempts 32–8goals 0–0
- McNabb – Korczak12:37
xG 0.24–0.06 (80%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Whitecloud15:42
xG 0.75–1.40 (35%)attempts 18–18goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Hayes – Tomasino3:07
xG 0.45–0.05 (89%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell15:17
xG 0.97–0.82 (54%)attempts 15–24goals 1–0
- Hayes – Imama – Bemstrom3:00
xG 0.01–0.01 (45%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Malkin – Heinen – Tomasino8:12
xG 0.08–0.33 (20%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Kolyachonok14:03
xG 0.90–0.45 (67%)attempts 13–19goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Graves2:06
xG 0.27–0.02 (94%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Timmins – Kolyachonok2:34
xG 0.04–0.02 (74%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).