Thu, Mar 13, 2025·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Philadelphia Flyers 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 17 | 17 | 15 | 01 | 1 | 320 |
| PHI | 19 | 28 | 011 | 01 | 2 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:29TBLGage GoncalvesPPAssists: Yanni Gourde, Ryan McDonagh · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 14:20PHIBobby BrinkAssists: Olle Lycksell, Ryan Poehling · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 0:15TBLZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Erik Cernak, Brandon Hagel · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 10:55PHIBobby BrinkAssists: Sean Couturier · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 19:01PHIRyan PoehlingAssists: Olle Lycksell, Bobby Brink · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 3:50TBLCam AtkinsonAssists: Victor Hedman, J.J. Moser · Snap, 0.10 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. PHI Travis Konecny stopped
- 2. TBL Jake Guentzel stopped
- 3. PHI Matvei Michkov scored
- 4. TBL Brayden Point scored
- 5. PHI Bobby Brink stopped
- 6. TBL Victor Hedman stopped
- 7. PHI Sean Couturier stopped
- 8. TBL Brandon Hagel stopped
- 9. PHI Owen Tippett scored
- 10. TBL Oliver Bjorkstrand stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:47PHIRyan Poehling: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 0:30PHIBobby Brink: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:12TBLJ.J. Moser: Holding2 min
- P2 8:38PHIBobby Brink: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:54TBLRyan McDonagh: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGuentzel – Paul – Point6:56
xG 0.23–0.08 (75%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Girgensons – Cirelli – Hagel11:37
xG 0.43–0.36 (54%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Bjorkstrand – Paul – Goncalves3:19
xG 0.03–0.10 (25%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Goncalves5:21
xG 0.04–0.13 (25%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Moser9:41
xG 0.69–0.40 (63%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Perbix – Lilleberg8:15
xG 0.32–0.17 (65%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Moser – Lilleberg4:18
xG 0.03–0.08 (31%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestPoehling – Lycksell – Brink9:24
xG 0.41–0.03 (92%)attempts 9–2goals 2–0
- Couturier – Tippett – Michkov14:29
xG 0.54–0.31 (63%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- Konecny – Cates – Foerster13:02
xG 0.32–0.42 (43%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Abols – Pelletier4:56
xG 0.08–0.41 (17%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestZamula – Andrae12:10
xG 0.69–0.10 (88%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Sanheim – York17:44
xG 0.67–0.27 (72%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Seeler – Drysdale12:10
xG 0.16–0.65 (19%)attempts 10–12goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).