Fri, Mar 14, 2025·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Dallas Stars 1, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 09 | 08 | 18 | 125 |
| WPG | 26 | 14 | 112 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:01WPGDylan SambergAssists: Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 17:02WPGKyle ConnorGWGAssists: Mark Scheifele, Gabriel Vilardi · Snap, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 6:43WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Josh Morrissey, Mark Scheifele · Slap, 0.24 xG0–3
- P3 7:26WPGMorgan BarronAssists: Brandon Tanev, Dylan DeMelo · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–4
- P3 16:11DALMason MarchmentAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Cody Ceci · Snap, 0.23 xG1–4
Penalties (2)
- P2 15:45WPGColin Miller: Interference2 min
- P3 18:42DALIlya Lyubushkin: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Marchment – Bourque11:34
xG 0.51–0.24 (68%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Benn – Rantanen – Johnston12:57
xG 0.43–0.49 (46%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Steel – Bäck9:07
xG 0.23–0.32 (41%)attempts 11–6goals 0–2
- Duchene – Granlund – Robertson12:31
xG 0.40–0.55 (42%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Ceci – Lindell16:44
xG 0.67–0.66 (50%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
- Smith – Dumba8:16
xG 0.32–0.33 (50%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Lyubushkin – Harley12:58
xG 0.45–0.51 (47%)attempts 12–10goals 0–2
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestTanev – Iafallo – Barron8:51
xG 0.56–0.15 (79%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi14:47
xG 0.95–0.57 (62%)attempts 15–10goals 3–1
- Namestnikov – Ehlers – Perfetti12:07
xG 0.58–0.50 (54%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton14:45
xG 0.31–0.63 (33%)attempts 9–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Morrissey5:00
xG 0.45–0.06 (89%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey14:54
xG 0.61–0.23 (72%)attempts 17–14goals 2–0
- DeMelo – Fleury3:14
xG 0.46–0.25 (65%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).