Sat, Mar 15, 2025·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Washington Capitals 5, San Jose Sharks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 317 | 05 | 26 | 528 |
| SJS | 03 | 07 | 110 | 120 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:33WSHDylan StromeAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–0
- P1 17:26WSHAliaksei ProtasGWGAssists: Lars Eller, Tom Wilson · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–0
- P1 18:55WSHTaylor RaddyshAssists: John Carlson, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Snap, 0.08 xG3–0
- P3 6:19SJSMacklin CelebriniAssists: Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–1
- P3 6:59WSHTrevor van RiemsdykAssists: Lars Eller, Andrew Mangiapane · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
- P3 10:54WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Martin Fehérváry, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Tip-in, 0.11 xG5–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 15:01SJSTimothy Liljegren: Interference2 min
- P2 7:08WSHRasmus Sandin: Interference2 min
- P2 11:03SJSMario Ferraro: Holding2 min
- P2 14:56WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:56SJSZack Ostapchuk: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:37SJSNoah Gregor: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:37WSHBrandon Duhaime: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:41SJSMario Ferraro: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:36WSHJakob Chychrun: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:36WSHJakob Chychrun: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Celebrini won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Mangiapane – Raddysh9:19
xG 0.50–0.13 (79%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Wilson – Strome6:11
xG 0.57–0.39 (59%)attempts 6–4goals 1–1
- Dowd – Beauvillier – Duhaime8:47
xG 0.21–0.04 (85%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Wilson – Strome – McMichael3:45
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Fehérváry9:51
xG 1.52–0.17 (90%)attempts 19–3goals 3–0
- van Riemsdyk – Chychrun9:55
xG 0.39–0.18 (68%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Carlson – Chychrun2:30
xG 0.16–0.03 (86%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestWennberg – Smith – Graf11:11
xG 0.45–0.37 (55%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Gregor – Giles – Dellandrea9:51
xG 0.19–0.42 (31%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
- Goodrow – Kostin – Ostapchuk7:41
xG 0.00–0.39 (0%)attempts 0–12goals 0–1
- Toffoli – Eklund – Celebrini12:38
xG 0.74–1.24 (37%)attempts 9–11goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestDesharnais – Ferraro4:54
xG 0.13–0.02 (89%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Liljegren – Mukhamadullin2:00
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Liljegren – Schuldt2:19
xG 0.11–0.10 (53%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).