Sat, Mar 15, 2025·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
St. Louis Blues 5, Minnesota Wild 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 18 | 28 | 212 | 528 |
| MIN | 06 | 17 | 05 | 118 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:17STLBrayden SchennAssists: Cam Fowler, Alexey Toropchenko · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 10:51STLJake NeighboursGWGAssists: Robert Thomas, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 12:22STLJordan KyrouAssists: Brayden Schenn, Cam Fowler · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–0
- P2 12:47MINJake MiddletonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 11:30STLJordan KyrouAssists: Dylan Holloway, Justin Faulk · Wrap-around, 0.00 xG4–1
- P3 17:40STLJordan KyrouENAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.81 xG5–1
Penalties (3)
- P1 10:59MINMats Zuccarello: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 15:35MINMarcus Foligno: Holding2 min
- P2 18:54STLRobert Thomas: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hartman won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Kyrou – Holloway11:52
xG 0.60–0.24 (71%)attempts 13–8goals 2–1
- Sundqvist – Joseph – Bolduc8:46
xG 0.38–0.17 (69%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Thomas – Neighbours12:05
xG 0.45–0.49 (48%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Faksa – Walker – Toropchenko10:48
xG 0.39–0.78 (34%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Tucker15:12
xG 0.88–0.64 (58%)attempts 20–18goals 1–0
- Faulk – Broberg17:02
xG 1.05–0.85 (55%)attempts 20–17goals 1–0
- Leddy – Fowler17:05
xG 0.44–0.39 (53%)attempts 14–14goals 2–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Foligno – Hartman3:12
xG 0.43–0.11 (79%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Foligno – Hinostroza – Hartman7:52
xG 0.50–0.30 (63%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Johansson – Zuccarello – Rossi4:41
xG 0.28–0.27 (50%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Hinostroza – Gaudreau – Boldy2:03
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Chisholm16:56
xG 0.86–0.71 (55%)attempts 21–18goals 0–1
- Middleton – Faber18:10
xG 0.72–0.74 (49%)attempts 18–15goals 1–2
- Bogosian – Merrill11:38
xG 0.43–0.87 (33%)attempts 11–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).