Sun, Mar 16, 2025·Ball Arena, Denver
Dallas Stars 3, Colorado Avalanche 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 14 | 06 | 212 | 00 | 322 |
| COL | 112 | 214 | 08 | 11 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:10DALJason RobertsonAssists: Roope Hintz, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–0
- P1 14:09COLMartin NecasPPAssists: Cale Makar, Jonathan Drouin · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 6:24COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Devon Toews, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 17:19COLJonathan DrouinAssists: Sam Malinski, Valeri Nichushkin · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 14:12DALMavrik BourqueAssists: Jamie Benn, Wyatt Johnston · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 14:32DALMatt DucheneAssists: Esa Lindell, Mason Marchment · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–3
- OT 0:34COLCale MakarGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:03DALJamie Benn: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 11:32DALJamie Benn: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 2:42COLParker Kelly: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 19:44DALMason Marchment: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:48DALIlya Lyubushkin: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hintz won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Granlund – Marchment10:58
xG 0.81–0.31 (73%)attempts 21–14goals 1–0
- Benn – Bourque – Johnston2:54
xG 0.53–0.05 (91%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Rantanen – Hintz – Robertson11:06
xG 0.73–0.36 (67%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Steel – Bäck – Bourque4:41
xG 0.10–0.16 (39%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDumba – Harley2:00
xG 0.27–0.03 (89%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Dumba – Bichsel8:51
xG 0.49–0.34 (59%)attempts 10–12goals 1–2
- Ceci – Lindell14:09
xG 0.69–0.58 (54%)attempts 11–19goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Drury – O'Connor9:38
xG 0.47–0.40 (54%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Nelson – Drouin – Nichushkin8:15
xG 0.19–0.21 (48%)attempts 10–5goals 2–1
- Coyle – Colton – Kiviranta9:24
xG 0.24–0.58 (29%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas12:59
xG 0.50–0.95 (35%)attempts 17–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar13:46
xG 0.61–0.09 (87%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Lindgren – Malinski7:57
xG 0.16–0.02 (86%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Johnson – Girard7:28
xG 0.22–0.18 (56%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).