Sun, Mar 16, 2025·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Anaheim Ducks 2, St. Louis Blues 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 07 | 111 | 17 | 225 |
| STL | 210 | 34 | 212 | 726 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:41STLBrayden SchennAssists: Dylan Holloway, Jordan Kyrou · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 1:30STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Jake Neighbours, Cam Fowler · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 8:19STLDylan HollowayPPGWGAssists: Justin Faulk, Jordan Kyrou · Slap, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 10:06ANACutter GauthierAssists: Radko Gudas, Mason McTavish · Snap, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 15:39STLRadek FaksaAssists: Alexey Toropchenko, Nathan Walker · Snap, 0.19 xG1–4
- P2 18:10STLMathieu JosephSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–5
- P3 2:23ANANikita NesterenkoAssists: Cutter Gauthier, Mason McTavish · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–5
- P3 6:18STLJake NeighboursPPAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Justin Faulk · Snap, 0.11 xG2–6
- P3 12:19STLOskar SundqvistPPAssists: Zachary Bolduc, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–7
Penalties (11)
- P1 17:23STLBrayden Schenn: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 17:23STLBrayden Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:23ANAJacob Trouba: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:55ANARyan Strome: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:45STLTyler Tucker: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:53ANAJacob Trouba: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:14STLJustin Faulk: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 5:48ANAMason McTavish: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 10:38ANARyan Strome: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 15:21STLNathan Walker: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:31ANATrevor Zegras: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Lundeström
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Strome – Vatrano – Terry9:59
xG 0.10–0.22 (32%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Nesterenko – McTavish – Gauthier10:14
xG 0.62–0.81 (43%)attempts 13–11goals 2–1
- Harkins – Lundeström – Leason7:06
xG 0.00–0.34 (1%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Killorn – Zegras – Carlsson8:23
xG 0.26–0.64 (29%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Zellweger14:56
xG 0.26–0.11 (71%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Helleson – Mintyukov11:46
xG 0.41–0.69 (37%)attempts 15–15goals 1–1
- Gudas – LaCombe13:11
xG 0.05–1.11 (4%)attempts 6–16goals 0–2
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSundqvist – Joseph – Bolduc9:21
xG 0.89–0.35 (72%)attempts 18–8goals 0–1
- Schenn – Kyrou – Holloway8:19
xG 0.49–0.10 (83%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Faksa – Walker – Toropchenko10:03
xG 0.44–0.09 (83%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Buchnevich – Thomas – Neighbours8:39
xG 0.33–0.30 (52%)attempts 4–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Tucker13:31
xG 0.97–0.24 (80%)attempts 19–9goals 1–1
- Faulk – Broberg12:58
xG 0.63–0.28 (69%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Leddy – Fowler13:41
xG 0.65–0.45 (59%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).