Sun, Mar 16, 2025·Madison Square Garden, New York
Edmonton Oilers 3, New York Rangers 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 110 | 06 | 27 | 323 |
| NYR | 07 | 18 | 07 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:17EDMCorey PerryPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 5:00NYRWill CuylleAssists: Artemi Panarin, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–1
- P3 6:09EDMViktor ArvidssonGWGAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Deflected, 0.01 xG2–1
- P3 16:35EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Brett Kulak · Snap, 0.05 xG3–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:08EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Slashing2 min
- P1 4:37NYRZac Jones: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:23NYRJ.T. Miller: Interference2 min
- P1 18:53NYRK'Andre Miller: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:12NYRJ.T. Miller: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 12:48EDMVasily Podkolzin: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:13EDMJeff Skinner: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Nugent-Hopkins – Arvidsson – Jones2:14
xG 0.03–0.01 (79%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Arvidsson – Podkolzin5:50
xG 0.29–0.32 (48%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Skinner – Kapanen – McDavid3:27
xG 0.10–0.13 (44%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Henrique – Kapanen – McDavid4:39
xG 0.07–0.21 (25%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWalman – Bouchard12:38
xG 0.96–0.70 (58%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Kulak – Nurse3:24
xG 0.12–0.00 (99%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Nurse – Stecher9:46
xG 0.25–0.22 (53%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestBrodzinski – Rempe – Othmann5:24
xG 0.46–0.18 (72%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Zibanejad – Miller – Lafrenière8:10
xG 0.31–0.10 (76%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Kreider – Carrick – Berard5:02
xG 0.14–0.05 (74%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Kreider – Carrick – Brodzinski3:29
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Jones4:20
xG 0.10–0.03 (79%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Vaakanainen – Schneider3:15
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Borgen – Miller14:58
xG 0.83–0.92 (47%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).