Mon, Mar 17, 2025·TD Garden, Boston
Buffalo Sabres 3, Boston Bruins 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 17 | 19 | 08 | 16 | 330 |
| BOS | 29 | 04 | 05 | 02 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:19BUFPeyton KrebsPPAssists: Jack Quinn, Owen Power · Snap, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 13:00BOSPavel ZachaAssists: Morgan Geekie, David Pastrnak · Snap, 0.27 xG1–1
- P1 15:13BOSMorgan GeekieAssists: Parker Wotherspoon · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 12:48BUFOwen PowerAssists: Ryan McLeod, Bowen Byram · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- OT 4:49BUFAlex TuchPPGWGAssists: Owen Power, Jack Quinn · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:35BOSMark Kastelic: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 7:31BUFSam Lafferty: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P1 8:41BUFConnor Clifton: Boarding2 min
- P1 11:37BUFJordan Greenway: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:37BOSNikita Zadorov: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:08BOSDavid Pastrnak: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:52BOSIan Mitchell: Tripping2 min
- OT 2:51BOSMarat Khusnutdinov: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lafferty won the faceoff against Beecher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – Greenway – Thompson10:09
xG 0.34–0.17 (67%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Lafferty – Malenstyn – Kozak6:58
xG 0.19–0.19 (51%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Zucker – McLeod – Benson12:35
xG 0.33–0.38 (46%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Murray – Krebs – Quinn9:37
xG 0.06–0.62 (9%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Bryson8:42
xG 0.25–0.09 (73%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Byram – Power13:25
xG 0.35–0.21 (63%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Clifton – Power2:44
xG 0.01–0.02 (40%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestPastrnak – Zacha – Geekie10:34
xG 0.82–0.28 (74%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Lindholm – Lauko – Khusnutdinov5:37
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Lettieri – Mittelstadt – Koepke8:39
xG 0.07–0.05 (58%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Pastrnak – Geekie – Mittelstadt2:21
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPeeke – Lohrei12:45
xG 0.63–0.38 (62%)attempts 9–17goals 1–0
- Wotherspoon – Mitchell11:40
xG 0.32–0.22 (59%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
- Zadorov – Jokiharju14:29
xG 0.39–0.33 (54%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).