Tue, Mar 18, 2025·Centre Bell, Montreal
Ottawa Senators 3, Montréal Canadiens 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 111 | 19 | 15 | 325 |
| MTL | 19 | 08 | 516 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:07MTLChristian DvorakAssists: Brendan Gallagher, David Savard · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 16:42OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Dylan Cozens · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 12:38OTTMichael AmadioAssists: Travis Hamonic, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.27 xG2–1
- P3 3:38MTLLane HutsonAssists: Jake Evans · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 6:13OTTTravis HamonicAssists: David Perron, Tyler Kleven · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 10:22MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Alexandre Carrier, Christian Dvorak · Snap, 0.24 xG3–3
- P3 15:23MTLNick SuzukiPPGWGAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Emil Heineman · Snap, 0.33 xG3–4
- P3 18:16MTLJosh AndersonENAssists: Christian Dvorak, Jake Evans · Snap, 0.43 xG3–5
- P3 19:01MTLBrendan GallagherENAssists: Christian Dvorak, Alexandre Carrier · Backhand, 0.80 xG3–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:46MTLJuraj Slafkovský: Holding2 min
- P1 8:08OTTFabian Zetterlund: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:06MTLArber Xhekaj: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 10:50OTTDrake Batherson: Boarding2 min
- P2 11:43MTLJuraj Slafkovský: Holding2 min
- P2 15:56OTTArtem Zub: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:24OTTShane Pinto: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Evans won the faceoff against Cozens
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Tkachuk – Stützle9:21
xG 0.37–0.30 (55%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Amadio – Pinto – Greig10:43
xG 0.35–0.46 (43%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
- Highmore – Gaudette – Zetterlund4:53
xG 0.06–0.35 (14%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Perron – Batherson – Cozens8:55
xG 0.25–0.82 (23%)attempts 7–12goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- Chabot – Matinpalo2:37
xG 0.01–0.17 (4%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Sanderson – Zub13:20
xG 0.29–0.55 (35%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
- Kleven – Matinpalo11:25
xG 0.30–0.59 (34%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský11:20
xG 0.86–0.31 (73%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Laine – Newhook – Roy9:12
xG 0.42–0.12 (78%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Anderson – Dvorak7:36
xG 0.50–0.29 (63%)attempts 7–4goals 2–0
- Armia – Evans – Heineman7:28
xG 0.16–0.17 (48%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStruble – Hutson15:27
xG 1.11–0.13 (90%)attempts 18–5goals 2–1
- Matheson – Carrier13:33
xG 0.61–0.45 (58%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Savard – Xhekaj10:07
xG 0.46–0.41 (53%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).