Tue, Mar 18, 2025·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
St. Louis Blues 4, Nashville Predators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 27 | 18 | 16 | 421 |
| NSH | 07 | 18 | 08 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:04STLJustin FaulkPPAssists: Dylan Holloway, Jake Neighbours · Slap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 18:16STLJake NeighboursGWGAssists: Justin Faulk, Robert Thomas · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 18:50STLJordan KyrouAssists: Dylan Holloway, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–0
- P2 19:59NSHBrady SkjeiAssists: Steven Stamkos, Filip Forsberg · Slap, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 13:45STLJordan KyrouAssists: Dylan Holloway · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–1
Penalties (14)
- P1 4:42NSHZachary L'Heureux: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 8:35STLTyler Tucker: Interference2 min
- P1 12:27NSHMichael Bunting: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:12STLJake Neighbours: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:12NSHMichael McCarron: Interference5 min
- P2 6:12STLJake Neighbours: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:12NSHMichael McCarron: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:12NSHMichael McCarron: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 2:10STLTyler Tucker: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 2:10NSHCole Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:10STLTyler Tucker: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:10NSHCole Smith: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:10STLTyler Tucker: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:04NSHMichael Bunting: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against McCarron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Kyrou – Holloway8:37
xG 0.63–0.06 (91%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Buchnevich – Thomas – Neighbours8:23
xG 0.65–0.20 (77%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Sundqvist – Joseph – Bolduc4:36
xG 0.04–0.25 (12%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Faksa – Walker – Toropchenko9:47
xG 0.01–0.42 (2%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Broberg11:39
xG 1.05–0.61 (63%)attempts 12–18goals 2–1
- Fowler – Broberg2:22
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Suter – Tucker11:19
xG 0.25–0.33 (43%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestMarchessault – Sissons – Bunting6:44
xG 0.56–0.10 (85%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- McCarron – Bellows – Smith4:30
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Evangelista – L'Heureux – Svechkov3:37
xG 0.11–0.12 (49%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Stamkos – O'Reilly – Forsberg8:00
xG 0.16–0.94 (15%)attempts 6–10goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestEnglund – Barron10:48
xG 0.46–0.25 (65%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Englund – Del Gaizo3:03
xG 0.10–0.02 (83%)attempts 5–1goals 0–1
- Stastney – Del Gaizo10:36
xG 0.31–0.40 (44%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).