Tue, Mar 18, 2025·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Anaheim Ducks 3, Dallas Stars 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 02 | 316 | 06 | 01 | 325 |
| DAL | 19 | 115 | 14 | 13 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:42DALWyatt JohnstonPPAssists: Thomas Harley, Roope Hintz · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 2:48ANANikita NesterenkoAssists: Pavel Mintyukov, Mason McTavish · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 4:25DALMikael GranlundAssists: Matt Duchene, Mason Marchment · Snap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 13:03ANALeo CarlssonPPAssists: Ryan Strome, Troy Terry · Poke, 0.65 xG2–2
- P2 19:20ANALeo CarlssonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–2
- P3 4:37DALThomas HarleyAssists: Jamie Benn, Mavrik Bourque · Snap, 0.17 xG3–3
- OT 2:32DALMikael GranlundGWGAssists: Thomas Harley, Roope Hintz · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:36DALMatt Duchene: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:57ANAOlen Zellweger: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 13:18DALMavrik Bourque: Holding2 min
- P1 15:34ANADrew Helleson: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:49ANAMason McTavish: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:38ANAIsac Lundeström: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:10DALMikko Rantanen: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:13DALMason Marchment: Interference2 min
- P2 19:20DALOskar Bäck: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hintz won the faceoff against Carlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Gauthier – Carlsson6:50
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Strome – Vatrano – Terry6:42
xG 0.45–0.37 (55%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
- Strome – Terry – Gauthier4:45
xG 0.03–0.28 (11%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Harkins – Lundeström – Leason4:50
xG 0.00–0.27 (0%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Trouba – Mintyukov3:04
xG 0.23–0.28 (46%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Gudas – LaCombe15:38
xG 0.48–0.67 (41%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
- Helleson – Mintyukov7:29
xG 0.19–0.43 (31%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBlackwell – Steel – Bäck6:23
xG 0.63–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- Rantanen – Hintz – Robertson11:38
xG 0.81–0.32 (71%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Benn – Bourque – Johnston11:05
xG 0.84–0.41 (67%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
- Duchene – Granlund – Marchment11:24
xG 0.26–0.46 (36%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLyubushkin – Harley12:32
xG 1.40–0.19 (88%)attempts 19–4goals 1–0
- Ceci – Harley3:13
xG 0.51–0.13 (80%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Ceci – Lindell15:02
xG 0.74–0.60 (55%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).