Thu, Mar 20, 2025·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Florida Panthers 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 0 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 013 | 08 | 07 | 11 | 129 |
| CBJ | 05 | 012 | 08 | 00 | 025 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- OT 0:29FLAAleksander BarkovPPGWGAssists: Seth Jones, Sam Reinhart · Snap, 0.18 xG1–0
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:45FLAAleksander Barkov: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:01CBJDmitri Voronkov: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:01FLACarter Verhaeghe: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:54CBJBoone Jenner: Interference2 min
- P3 12:25FLASam Bennett: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:30CBJKirill Marchenko: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Danforth
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart14:25
xG 0.74–0.40 (65%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- Bennett – Rodrigues – Samoskevich11:03
xG 0.46–0.28 (62%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Boqvist – Luostarinen – Lundell9:22
xG 0.17–0.39 (31%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Greer – Gadjovich – Sturm6:05
xG 0.10–0.62 (14%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Forsling16:22
xG 0.86–0.72 (55%)attempts 22–21goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Balinskis10:19
xG 0.59–0.48 (55%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Jones2:00
xG 0.11–0.03 (77%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Kuraly – Kunin7:14
xG 0.70–0.12 (85%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Marchenko – Johnson – Fantilli10:36
xG 0.42–0.07 (86%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Olivier – Danforth – Aston-Reese13:32
xG 0.57–0.51 (53%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Jenner – Voronkov – Chinakhov11:02
xG 0.28–0.55 (34%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Fabbro18:04
xG 1.01–0.70 (59%)attempts 31–18goals 0–0
- Johnson – Severson12:58
xG 0.63–0.36 (64%)attempts 22–12goals 0–0
- Provorov – Mateychuk14:03
xG 0.42–0.56 (43%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).