Thu, Mar 20, 2025·UBS Arena, Elmont
Montréal Canadiens 3, New York Islanders 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 115 | 010 | 215 | 01 | 341 |
| NYI | 17 | 17 | 18 | 13 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:37NYIAnthony DuclairPPAssists: Anders Lee, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Snap, 0.43 xG0–1
- P1 11:58MTLJoshua RoyAssists: Jayden Struble, Patrik Laine · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 16:40NYISimon HolmstromPPAssists: Noah Dobson, Tony DeAngelo · Slap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 2:31NYIBo HorvatAssists: Noah Dobson, Ilya Sorokin · Snap, 0.23 xG1–3
- P3 4:32MTLPatrik LainePPAssists: Nick Suzuki · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 14:16MTLBrendan GallagherUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
- OT 3:37NYIBo HorvatGWGAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Ilya Sorokin · Snap, 0.12 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:50MTLBrendan Gallagher: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 9:22NYIAdam Pelech: Interference2 min
- P1 14:03NYIAnders Lee: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:31MTLBrendan Gallagher: Interference2 min
- P2 1:47NYINoah Dobson: Interference2 min
- P2 15:20MTLMike Matheson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 4:15NYIKyle MacLean: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:32NYIPierre Engvall: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Evans
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský12:08
xG 0.64–0.14 (82%)attempts 20–7goals 0–0
- Laine – Newhook – Roy7:14
xG 0.44–0.37 (54%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
- Gallagher – Anderson – Dvorak8:40
xG 0.26–0.58 (31%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Armia – Evans – Heineman6:52
xG 0.02–0.50 (4%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStruble – Hutson12:56
xG 0.78–0.58 (57%)attempts 21–8goals 1–0
- Savard – Xhekaj11:08
xG 0.11–0.14 (44%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
- Matheson – Xhekaj2:12
xG 0.11–0.34 (24%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestCizikas – Fasching – Engvall10:50
xG 1.04–0.32 (76%)attempts 22–11goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Horvat – Holmstrom10:29
xG 0.89–0.32 (73%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- MacLean – Gatcomb – Tsyplakov7:38
xG 0.09–0.14 (40%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Lee – Pageau – Duclair9:19
xG 0.08–0.62 (11%)attempts 4–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – DeAngelo17:31
xG 0.72–0.33 (68%)attempts 26–11goals 0–0
- Reilly – Mayfield7:11
xG 0.32–0.16 (66%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Reilly – Pulock2:47
xG 0.04–0.09 (32%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).