Thu, Mar 20, 2025·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Winnipeg Jets 4, Edmonton Oilers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 15 | 17 | 17 | 11 | 420 |
| EDM | 14 | 19 | 110 | 01 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:28EDMJeff SkinnerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 13:39WPGCole PerfettiAssists: Dylan Samberg, Nikolaj Ehlers · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 5:30EDMJeff SkinnerAssists: Connor McDavid, Darnell Nurse · Snap, 0.26 xG1–2
- P2 7:41WPGJosh MorrisseyAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Morgan Barron · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 3:56WPGBrandon TanevAssists: Alex Iafallo, Haydn Fleury · Backhand, 0.17 xG3–2
- P3 14:26EDMZach HymanAssists: Darnell Nurse, Jake Walman · Snap, 0.34 xG3–3
- OT 1:13WPGKyle ConnorGWGAssists: Mark Scheifele, Josh Morrissey · Snap, 0.11 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:58WPGCole Perfetti: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:08EDMMax Jones: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:30WPGNino Niederreiter: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 19:44EDMMattias Ekholm: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:42EDMDarnell Nurse: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:30EDMCorey Perry: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestTanev – Iafallo – Barron6:04
xG 0.66–0.16 (80%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Namestnikov – Ehlers – Perfetti8:15
xG 0.57–0.57 (50%)attempts 12–10goals 1–2
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton8:57
xG 0.22–0.28 (44%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi14:30
xG 0.61–1.21 (33%)attempts 11–21goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Morrissey2:56
xG 0.40–0.14 (74%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Samberg2:39
xG 0.17–0.08 (66%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey16:07
xG 0.39–0.43 (47%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Henrique – Hyman3:37
xG 0.91–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 1–0
- Skinner – Hyman – McDavid8:03
xG 0.58–0.33 (64%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Perry – Brown – Janmark2:55
xG 0.05–0.00 (97%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Henrique – Kapanen – Jones4:47
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Walman11:32
xG 1.06–0.31 (77%)attempts 13–9goals 2–2
- Kulak – Stecher10:13
xG 0.91–0.29 (76%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Bouchard13:01
xG 0.53–0.35 (60%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).