Thu, Mar 20, 2025·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Carolina Hurricanes 3, San Jose Sharks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 012 | 110 | 27 | 329 |
| SJS | 19 | 06 | 010 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:00SJSWilliam EklundSHAssists: Ty Dellandrea · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 10:31CARSeth JarvisUnassisted · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P3 4:58CARSebastian AhoGWGAssists: Jackson Blake, Brent Burns · Slap, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 14:18CARSean WalkerAssists: Taylor Hall, Shayne Gostisbehere · Slap, 0.03 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:24SJSZack Ostapchuk: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:49CARTaylor Hall: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:19SJSTyler Toffoli: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:24CARJordan Martinook: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:34CARTaylor Hall: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:37SJSWill Smith: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Aho won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestAho – Jarvis – Blake11:29
xG 1.05–0.15 (88%)attempts 18–10goals 2–0
- Hall – Roslovic – Kotkaniemi10:11
xG 0.43–0.11 (79%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Staal – Martinook – Stankoven9:09
xG 0.28–0.20 (58%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Jost – Robinson7:18
xG 0.32–0.24 (57%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin13:38
xG 0.98–0.27 (78%)attempts 19–8goals 2–0
- Orlov – Gostisbehere5:50
xG 0.50–0.12 (80%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Chatfield – Walker5:58
xG 0.38–0.17 (69%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestWennberg – Eklund – Smith11:31
xG 0.37–0.17 (69%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Giles – Dellandrea – Kovalenko8:48
xG 0.14–0.35 (28%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Grundstrom – Ostapchuk9:08
xG 0.24–0.76 (24%)attempts 3–13goals 0–1
- Toffoli – Celebrini – Graf8:15
xG 0.02–0.68 (3%)attempts 3–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Liljegren – Cagnoni3:15
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Liljegren – Mukhamadullin2:53
xG 0.02–0.14 (14%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Ferraro3:12
xG 0.02–0.15 (10%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).