Sat, Mar 22, 2025·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Dallas Stars 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 08 | 25 | 011 | 00 | 224 |
| DAL | 23 | 07 | 08 | 11 | 319 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:27DALThomas HarleyAssists: Colin Blackwell, Sam Steel · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 8:59DALEsa LindellAssists: Mikael Granlund, Matt Duchene · Snap, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 13:03PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Sean Couturier, Cam York · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 18:48PHIRyan PoehlingAssists: Matvei Michkov, Tyson Foerster · Snap, 0.25 xG2–2
- OT 0:09DALThomas HarleyGWGAssists: Jason Robertson · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 15:11DALIlya Lyubushkin: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:11DALIlya Lyubushkin: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:11PHITravis Konecny: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:40DALJason Robertson: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:45PHINick Seeler: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 16:07PHIBobby Brink: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:51PHITravis Konecny: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:13PHIOwen Tippett: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:41DALMathew Dumba: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cates won the faceoff against Hintz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCates – Brink – Foerster9:22
xG 0.64–0.05 (93%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Tippett – Poehling – Pelletier3:11
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Poehling – Lycksell – Pelletier4:15
xG 0.13–0.10 (56%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Abols – Tippett2:44
xG 0.15–0.17 (47%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – York16:03
xG 0.87–0.41 (68%)attempts 18–17goals 1–1
- Zamula – Andrae8:01
xG 0.44–0.08 (84%)attempts 15–2goals 0–0
- Seeler – Drysdale13:21
xG 0.23–0.40 (37%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRantanen – Hintz – Robertson11:22
xG 0.33–0.27 (55%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Benn – Dadonov – Johnston9:54
xG 0.33–0.47 (41%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
- Blackwell – Steel – Bäck9:25
xG 0.08–0.38 (18%)attempts 5–6goals 1–1
- Duchene – Granlund – Marchment8:34
xG 0.28–0.69 (29%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Harley4:45
xG 0.32–0.10 (77%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Ceci – Lindell12:32
xG 0.35–0.30 (54%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Dumba – Bichsel10:58
xG 0.18–0.46 (27%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).