Sat, Mar 22, 2025·Prudential Center, Newark
Ottawa Senators 3, New Jersey Devils 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 07 | 38 | 04 | 319 |
| NJD | 06 | 16 | 115 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:05OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Jake Sanderson, Tim Stützle · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 4:38OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Dylan Cozens, Travis Hamonic · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 7:13NJDNico HischierPPAssists: Jesper Bratt, Luke Hughes · Slap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 8:44OTTDavid PerronPPGWGAssists: Claude Giroux, Ridly Greig · Deflected, 0.20 xG3–1
- P3 19:36NJDErik HaulaAssists: Luke Hughes, Cody Glass · Snap, 0.18 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:31OTTShane Pinto: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:21NJDNico Hischier: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:26NJDJohnathan Kovacevic: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:05OTTBrady Tkachuk: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:45NJDStefan Noesen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:40OTTNikolas Matinpalo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glass won the faceoff against Pinto
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Pinto – Greig11:28
xG 0.68–0.22 (76%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Zetterlund – Tkachuk – Stützle8:32
xG 0.37–0.22 (63%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Amadio – Highmore – Gaudette2:52
xG 0.07–0.05 (61%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Perron – Batherson – Cozens9:12
xG 0.32–0.65 (33%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub16:52
xG 0.92–0.20 (82%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Kleven – Matinpalo8:35
xG 0.27–0.09 (75%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Sanderson – Matinpalo2:03
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestMeier – Hischier – Mercer4:17
xG 0.51–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Haula – Bratt – Glass6:09
xG 0.71–0.40 (64%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Noesen – Bratt – Glass5:00
xG 0.26–0.30 (47%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Haula – Sprong – Foote2:00
xG 0.04–0.07 (33%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDumoulin – Kovacevic10:29
xG 0.57–0.25 (70%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Pesce2:27
xG 0.22–0.02 (93%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Kovacevic – Hughes2:00
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).