Sat, Mar 22, 2025·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Detroit Red Wings 3, Vegas Golden Knights 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 113 | 19 | 19 | 331 |
| VGK | 316 | 28 | 112 | 636 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:47DETLucas RaymondPPAssists: Dylan Larkin, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 11:47VGKTomas HertlPPAssists: Mark Stone, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
- P1 16:32VGKTomas HertlAssists: Brayden McNabb, Kaedan Korczak · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P1 19:57VGKNicolas RoyAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 1:49DETPatrick KanePPAssists: Moritz Seider, Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 7:07VGKMark StoneGWGAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Noah Hanifin · Snap, 0.13 xG2–4
- P2 8:02VGKTomas HertlPPAssists: Mark Stone, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–5
- P3 9:36DETAlex DeBrincatAssists: Patrick Kane, Simon Edvinsson · Snap, 0.04 xG3–5
- P3 17:59VGKJack EichelENAssists: Ivan Barbashev · Backhand, 0.69 xG3–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:58VGKMark Stone: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 11:13DETJonatan Berggren: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 0:45VGKBrett Howden: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:16DETMoritz Seider: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:56VGKZach Whitecloud: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:56DETBen Chiarot: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestWatson – Motte – Berggren3:52
xG 0.18–0.10 (65%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Smith – Tarasenko – Compher7:40
xG 0.17–0.13 (56%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Larkin – Rasmussen – Raymond12:32
xG 0.62–0.58 (51%)attempts 18–14goals 0–1
- Kane – DeBrincat – Kasper13:39
xG 0.50–0.52 (49%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Chiarot – Seider6:56
xG 0.27–0.37 (42%)attempts 15–8goals 0–2
- Holl – Edvinsson19:24
xG 0.52–0.71 (42%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Johansson11:22
xG 0.28–0.58 (33%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSaad – Hertl – Dorofeyev12:35
xG 0.76–0.31 (71%)attempts 21–17goals 1–1
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel12:27
xG 0.62–0.26 (70%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0
- Pearson – Kolesar – Roy9:11
xG 0.61–0.34 (64%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Howden13:21
xG 0.51–0.47 (52%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Hanifin11:34
xG 0.92–0.09 (91%)attempts 18–5goals 1–0
- McNabb – Korczak16:56
xG 0.86–0.36 (71%)attempts 16–16goals 2–0
- Hanifin – Whitecloud6:48
xG 0.20–0.30 (40%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).