Sun, Mar 23, 2025·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Buffalo Sabres 5, Winnipeg Jets 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 13 | 16 | 38 | 517 |
| WPG | 010 | 113 | 213 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:15BUFJJ PeterkaAssists: Jacob Bernard-Docker, Ryan McLeod · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 2:05WPGNino NiederreiterPPAssists: Cole Perfetti, Vladislav Namestnikov · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–1
- P2 18:46BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Jacob Bernard-Docker, Ryan McLeod · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 7:13BUFTyson KozakPPAssists: Mattias Samuelsson · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 7:41WPGColin MillerAssists: Mark Scheifele, Logan Stanley · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 13:21BUFAlex TuchSHGWGAssists: Ryan McLeod, Connor Clifton · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–2
- P3 16:32WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Logan Stanley, Dylan DeMelo · Slap, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 19:13BUFRyan McLeodENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.31 xG5–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:58WPGMark Scheifele: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:24BUFConnor Clifton: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 6:28WPGMason Appleton: Interference2 min
- P2 12:31BUFBowen Byram: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:13WPGMark Scheifele: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:02BUFMattias Samuelsson: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kozak won the faceoff against Namestnikov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Tuch – Thompson – Benson11:11
xG 0.14–0.20 (42%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Zucker – Krebs – Kozak3:26
xG 0.03–0.20 (13%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Zucker – Greenway – Krebs3:02
xG 0.00–0.28 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
- Malenstyn – Murray – Kozak4:44
xG 0.02–0.38 (6%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Clifton – Byram14:20
xG 0.04–0.43 (8%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Bernard-Docker – Power9:49
xG 0.13–0.62 (18%)attempts 7–14goals 1–1
- Samuelsson – Dahlin13:22
xG 0.23–0.82 (22%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Lowry – Appleton9:00
xG 0.55–0.12 (82%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi9:25
xG 0.27–0.05 (84%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Namestnikov – Ehlers – Perfetti9:00
xG 0.32–0.16 (67%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Tanev – Iafallo – Barron4:58
xG 0.13–0.11 (54%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Morrissey2:34
xG 0.45–0.04 (93%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Samberg2:39
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Miller – Stanley10:22
xG 0.40–0.11 (78%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).