Tue, Mar 25, 2025·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 13 | 18 | 08 | 219 |
| TOR | 210 | 413 | 17 | 730 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:59PHIRyan PoehlingAssists: Jakob Pelletier, Rodrigo Abols · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 10:37TORJohn TavaresAssists: William Nylander · Snap, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 15:11TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Matthew Knies, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 1:45TORBobby McMannGWGAssists: John Tavares, William Nylander · Snap, 0.20 xG1–3
- P2 7:49TORJohn TavaresAssists: Mitch Marner, Matthew Knies · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–4
- P2 11:55TORWilliam NylanderAssists: John Tavares, Bobby McMann · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–5
- P2 15:08TORDavid KampfAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Steven Lorentz · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–6
- P2 18:17PHISean CouturierAssists: Jamie Drysdale, Matvei Michkov · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–6
- P3 11:32TORMax DomiAssists: Jake McCabe · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–7
Penalties (4)
- P1 3:13PHINick Seeler: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P1 3:13TORCalle Jarnkrok: Boarding2 min
- P1 5:34TORNick Robertson: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:57PHIMatvei Michkov: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cates won the faceoff against Domi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Konecny – Michkov12:38
xG 1.03–0.53 (66%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Deslauriers – Abols – Lycksell10:22
xG 0.39–0.33 (54%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Tippett – Poehling – Pelletier10:04
xG 0.08–0.09 (47%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Cates – Brink – Foerster11:55
xG 0.21–0.34 (38%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestZamula – Drysdale7:26
xG 0.77–0.54 (59%)attempts 11–6goals 0–3
- Seeler – Sanheim7:44
xG 0.24–0.03 (88%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Sanheim – Andrae7:09
xG 0.44–0.25 (64%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Nylander – McMann11:53
xG 0.60–0.40 (60%)attempts 9–9goals 3–0
- Laughton – Domi – Robertson11:10
xG 0.27–0.12 (69%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Jarnkrok – Lorentz – Kampf10:51
xG 0.35–0.25 (58%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Marner – Matthews – Knies12:11
xG 0.23–0.92 (20%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Benoit14:09
xG 0.52–0.05 (91%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Rielly – Carlo14:55
xG 0.62–0.34 (65%)attempts 13–11goals 2–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly2:05
xG 0.25–0.17 (60%)attempts 2–3goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).