Tue, Mar 25, 2025·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Washington Capitals 2, Winnipeg Jets 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 16 | 012 | 111 | 00 | 229 |
| WPG | 18 | 17 | 09 | 11 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:50WPGJosh MorrisseyAssists: Mark Scheifele, Dylan DeMelo · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 19:20WSHAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Jakob Chychrun · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 19:48WPGMason AppletonAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Cole Perfetti · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 16:00WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Aliaksei Protas, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.11 xG2–2
- OT 1:28WPGNikolaj EhlersGWGAssists: Dylan Samberg, Adam Lowry · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 17:07WSHAndrew Mangiapane: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:07WPGColin Miller: Boarding2 min
- P2 7:09WPGCole Perfetti: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:32WPGLuke Schenn: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 17:37WSHMartin Fehérváry: Holding2 min
- P3 6:29WSHTaylor Raddysh: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dowd won the faceoff against Namestnikov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Dubois – McMichael12:22
xG 0.41–0.13 (76%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Eller – Mangiapane – Raddysh5:43
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–0goals 0–0
- Dowd – Beauvillier – Duhaime8:26
xG 0.16–0.07 (69%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – Protas7:33
xG 0.28–0.36 (44%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Sandin9:24
xG 0.31–0.08 (80%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Chychrun10:22
xG 0.49–0.27 (65%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Sandin2:24
xG 0.11–0.01 (91%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Tanev – Barron – Kupari4:15
xG 0.12–0.11 (52%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Lowry – Ehlers – Appleton10:25
xG 0.23–0.26 (47%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Namestnikov – Perfetti9:36
xG 0.18–0.27 (40%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Scheifele – Connor – Iafallo13:13
xG 0.15–0.38 (29%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey16:56
xG 0.63–0.47 (58%)attempts 21–14goals 1–1
- Miller – Stanley10:57
xG 0.16–0.17 (49%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Schenn – Samberg13:50
xG 0.05–0.56 (8%)attempts 7–23goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).