Fri, Mar 28, 2025·Honda Center, Anaheim
New York Rangers 4, Anaheim Ducks 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 29 | 113 | 18 | 00 | 430 |
| ANA | 116 | 011 | 35 | 11 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:20NYRAdam FoxAssists: Artemi Panarin, K'Andre Miller · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 16:55ANAAlex KillornSHAssists: Leo Carlsson · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P1 18:48NYRJ.T. MillerAssists: Will Cuylle, Alexis Lafrenière · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 0:14NYRAlexis LafrenièreAssists: J.T. Miller · Snap, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 2:22ANALeo CarlssonAssists: Olen Zellweger, Trevor Zegras · Snap, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 4:35NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Adam Fox, Artemi Panarin · Snap, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 14:12ANACutter GauthierAssists: Leo Carlsson, Jackson LaCombe · Backhand, 0.06 xG4–3
- P3 18:15ANAOlen ZellwegerAssists: Pavel Mintyukov, Leo Carlsson · Snap, 0.09 xG4–4
- OT 0:59ANAMason McTavishGWGAssists: Jackson LaCombe, Cutter Gauthier · Tip-in, 0.15 xG4–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:54NYRWill Borgen: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:21ANAFrank Vatrano: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:48NYRCarson Soucy: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:10ANATrevor Zegras: Interference2 min
- P2 13:54NYRUrho Vaakanainen: Holding2 min
- P2 15:12NYRJ.T. Miller: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 4:05ANARyan Strome: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 4:56ANATroy Terry: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:20ANATrevor Zegras: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 11:58ANAOlen Zellweger: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 16:06ANARadko Gudas: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Panarin – Othmann8:23
xG 0.96–0.16 (86%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Carrick – Aube-Kubel – Berard7:16
xG 0.10–0.12 (46%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Brodzinski8:15
xG 0.22–0.31 (41%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Miller – Lafrenière – Cuylle10:33
xG 0.44–0.61 (42%)attempts 8–10goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestSoucy – Fox14:11
xG 0.96–0.28 (77%)attempts 22–9goals 0–0
- Vaakanainen – Schneider11:46
xG 0.09–0.29 (24%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Borgen – Miller12:52
xG 0.61–0.91 (40%)attempts 9–19goals 2–3
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestZegras – Colangelo – McTavish7:11
xG 0.30–0.14 (69%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Killorn – Gauthier – Carlsson9:37
xG 0.56–0.57 (50%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
- Harkins – Lundeström – Nesterenko7:20
xG 0.26–0.30 (46%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Strome – Vatrano – Terry7:56
xG 0.17–0.53 (24%)attempts 4–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHelleson – Mintyukov11:57
xG 0.39–0.11 (77%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Gudas – LaCombe11:34
xG 0.62–0.52 (54%)attempts 12–9goals 1–2
- Trouba – Zellweger12:20
xG 0.29–0.75 (28%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).