Sat, Mar 29, 2025·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Buffalo Sabres 4, Philadelphia Flyers 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 16 | 27 | 18 | 421 |
| PHI | 212 | 28 | 312 | 732 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:27PHIMatvei MichkovAssists: Travis Konecny, Egor Zamula · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 5:56PHIJakob PelletierAssists: Owen Tippett, Ryan Poehling · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 10:57BUFJack QuinnAssists: JJ Peterka, Ryan McLeod · Snap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 1:41BUFJJ PeterkaAssists: Jack Quinn, Peyton Krebs · Snap, 0.20 xG2–2
- P2 8:13BUFJack QuinnPPAssists: Ryan McLeod, Owen Power · Snap, 0.16 xG3–2
- P2 10:36PHIMatvei MichkovAssists: Travis Konecny · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–3
- P2 14:11PHINoah CatesAssists: Tyson Foerster, Bobby Brink · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–4
- P3 6:39PHIRyan PoehlingPPGWGAssists: Owen Tippett, Olle Lycksell · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–5
- P3 10:13PHITyson FoersterAssists: Bobby Brink, Noah Cates · Slap, 0.10 xG3–6
- P3 15:05BUFAlex TuchSHAssists: Ryan McLeod · Snap, 0.26 xG4–6
- P3 15:34PHIRyan PoehlingPPAssists: Noah Cates · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–7
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:11BUFJiri Kulich: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:09PHITyson Foerster: Boarding2 min
- P2 6:18PHIRodrigo Abols: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:53BUFPeyton Krebs: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 14:23BUFZach Benson: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kulich won the faceoff against Cates
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestZucker – Tuch – Krebs8:41
xG 0.27–0.16 (63%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Malenstyn – Rosen – Kozak6:20
xG 0.51–0.53 (49%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- McLeod – Quinn – Peterka11:47
xG 0.44–0.58 (43%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Thompson – Kulich – Benson9:25
xG 0.16–0.63 (20%)attempts 2–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Byram12:36
xG 0.67–0.33 (67%)attempts 12–10goals 2–1
- Bernard-Docker – Power12:24
xG 0.57–0.34 (63%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Clifton – Bryson2:53
xG 0.03–0.01 (67%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestTippett – Poehling – Pelletier10:20
xG 0.83–0.02 (97%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Cates – Brink – Foerster11:54
xG 0.75–0.27 (73%)attempts 14–5goals 2–0
- Deslauriers – Abols – Lycksell7:13
xG 0.23–0.34 (41%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Couturier – Konecny – Michkov13:34
xG 0.32–0.69 (31%)attempts 11–16goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestYork – Drysdale14:35
xG 1.19–0.74 (62%)attempts 19–15goals 2–1
- Seeler – Sanheim18:37
xG 0.74–0.69 (52%)attempts 15–18goals 3–0
- Zamula – Andrae12:10
xG 0.31–0.38 (45%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).