Sun, Mar 30, 2025·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Vancouver Canucks 1, Winnipeg Jets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 16 | 011 | 07 | 124 |
| WPG | 09 | 17 | 211 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:55VANPius SuterAssists: Tyler Myers, Jake DeBrusk · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 9:26WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Mark Scheifele, Colin Miller · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 6:24WPGMason AppletonGWGAssists: Adam Lowry, Nikolaj Ehlers · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–2
- P3 12:11WPGCole PerfettiAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:08VANAatu Räty: Slashing2 min
- P1 5:01VANTeddy Blueger: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:36WPGLogan Stanley: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:55WPGNino Niederreiter: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 17:08WPGLuke Schenn: Interference2 min
- P3 7:50VANKiefer Sherwood: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:40VANLinus Karlsson: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Namestnikov won the faceoff against Räty
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Aman – Lekkerimäki6:09
xG 0.44–0.31 (58%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Joshua – Sherwood – Räty11:19
xG 0.17–0.29 (36%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Blueger – Garland – O'Connor8:39
xG 0.25–0.55 (32%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Boeser – DeBrusk – Suter8:06
xG 0.47–0.81 (37%)attempts 11–14goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- Forbort – Pettersson2:44
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Myers – Pettersson11:03
xG 0.34–0.45 (44%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Hronek – Hughes13:51
xG 0.83–1.00 (45%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Ehlers – Appleton9:37
xG 1.10–0.30 (79%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Iafallo9:37
xG 0.57–0.20 (74%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Tanev – Barron – Gustafsson5:23
xG 0.13–0.09 (59%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Namestnikov – Perfetti8:38
xG 0.23–0.22 (52%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Samberg10:19
xG 0.88–0.04 (96%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Miller – Stanley9:49
xG 0.38–0.27 (58%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey15:21
xG 0.87–0.89 (50%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).