Sun, Mar 30, 2025·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
New York Islanders 4, Carolina Hurricanes 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 29 | 19 | 113 | 431 |
| CAR | 214 | 26 | 210 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:41CARMark JankowskiAssists: Eric Robinson, Tyson Jost · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 4:54CARLogan StankovenAssists: Jordan Martinook · Snap, 0.13 xG0–2
- P1 6:10NYIPierre EngvallAssists: Adam Pelech · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P1 11:27NYIKyle PalmieriPPAssists: Noah Dobson, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 1:37NYIPierre EngvallUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P2 8:35CARSebastian AhoPPAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Taylor Hall · Slap, 0.07 xG3–3
- P2 17:29CARSeth JarvisSHAssists: Sebastian Aho, Jaccob Slavin · Snap, 0.06 xG3–4
- P3 4:05NYIAnders LeeAssists: Bo Horvat, Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–4
- P3 9:19CARDmitry OrlovGWGAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Tyson Jost · Slap, 0.04 xG4–5
- P3 17:14CARSeth JarvisAssists: Sebastian Aho · Snap, 0.34 xG4–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:30NYINoah Dobson: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:17CARAndrei Svechnikov: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 16:53NYIHudson Fasching: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 18:46CARAndrei Svechnikov: Holding2 min
- P2 7:29NYIMaxim Tsyplakov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:02NYINoah Dobson: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:38CARJalen Chatfield: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 18:43CARLogan Stankoven: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kotkaniemi won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Cizikas – Fasching – Engvall9:36
xG 0.41–0.42 (49%)attempts 10–7goals 2–1
- Palmieri – Lee – Horvat9:28
xG 0.23–0.60 (28%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
- MacLean – Gatcomb – Tsyplakov7:40
xG 0.03–0.49 (6%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Pageau – Duclair – Holmstrom9:36
xG 0.15–0.70 (17%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Pelech – DeAngelo12:53
xG 0.31–0.68 (32%)attempts 11–9goals 2–1
- Pulock – Dobson10:43
xG 0.07–0.51 (12%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
- Boqvist – Romanov10:54
xG 0.03–0.53 (4%)attempts 2–9goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestAho – Jarvis – Blake10:23
xG 1.33–0.13 (91%)attempts 15–7goals 1–1
- Hall – Jankowski – Robinson2:35
xG 0.30–0.03 (90%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Martinook – Kotkaniemi – Stankoven8:56
xG 0.41–0.23 (64%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Jankowski – Jost – Robinson3:51
xG 0.18–0.01 (93%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin13:44
xG 1.49–0.22 (87%)attempts 18–8goals 2–1
- Orlov – Chatfield15:48
xG 0.80–0.22 (78%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Gostisbehere – Walker9:35
xG 0.55–0.40 (58%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).