Mon, Mar 31, 2025·Ball Arena, Denver
Calgary Flames 3, Colorado Avalanche 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 06 | 06 | 211 | 04 | 1 | 327 |
| COL | 110 | 111 | 05 | 04 | 0 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:31COLCale MakarAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 7:59COLLogan O'ConnorAssists: Parker Kelly · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P3 10:57CGYRyan LombergAssists: Adam Klapka, MacKenzie Weegar · Poke, 0.24 xG1–2
- P3 11:29CGYAdam KlapkaAssists: Ryan Lomberg, Kevin Rooney · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. CGY Morgan Frost stopped
- 2. COL Ross Colton stopped
- 3. CGY Yegor Sharangovich scored
- 4. COL Charlie Coyle stopped
- 5. CGY Jonathan Huberdeau stopped
- 6. COL Valeri Nichushkin stopped
Penalties (3)
- P2 2:14CGYJoel Farabee: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:00CGYBlake Coleman: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:54COLRyan Lindgren: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLomberg – Rooney – Klapka5:58
xG 0.40–0.04 (91%)attempts 5–7goals 2–0
- Huberdeau – Frost – Coronato14:29
xG 0.34–0.12 (73%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Kadri – Pospisil – Klapka2:05
xG 0.10–0.02 (86%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Kadri – Pospisil – Sharangovich10:18
xG 0.09–0.13 (42%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Bahl19:44
xG 0.63–0.45 (58%)attempts 17–17goals 0–0
- Weegar – Hanley18:18
xG 0.71–0.69 (51%)attempts 16–15goals 2–1
- Bean – Pachal10:03
xG 0.15–0.24 (38%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestNelson – Nichushkin – Necas12:23
xG 0.35–0.11 (76%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Kelly – Drury – O'Connor8:34
xG 0.27–0.14 (66%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Coyle – Vesey – Colton8:09
xG 0.18–0.29 (38%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Drouin14:11
xG 0.32–0.52 (38%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Girard11:41
xG 0.31–0.13 (70%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Toews – Makar17:28
xG 0.67–0.70 (49%)attempts 17–19goals 1–0
- Johnson – Lindgren2:05
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).