Tue, Apr 1, 2025·Centre Bell, Montreal
Florida Panthers 2, Montréal Canadiens 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 15 | 113 | 09 | 00 | 227 |
| MTL | 19 | 07 | 14 | 11 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:43MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Kaiden Guhle, Lane Hutson · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 10:37FLANiko MikkolaAssists: Anton Lundell · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 18:47FLAMackie SamoskevichPPAssists: Seth Jones · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 19:51MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Lane Hutson, Juraj Slafkovský · Backhand, 0.22 xG2–2
- OT 0:29MTLNick SuzukiGWGAssists: Cole Caufield, Lane Hutson · Wrap-around, 0.18 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P2 5:04FLAAleksander Barkov: Interference2 min
- P2 18:03MTLEmil Heineman: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:18MTLJuraj Slafkovský: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:00FLASam Bennett: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:01MTLPatrik Laine: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:24FLASam Bennett: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart7:49
xG 0.76–0.15 (84%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Marchand – Barkov – Reinhart4:12
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Samoskevich3:00
xG 0.23–0.17 (58%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Rodrigues2:17
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Forsling18:45
xG 0.95–0.25 (79%)attempts 27–11goals 0–0
- Bjornfot – Balinskis8:38
xG 0.36–0.53 (41%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Schmidt – Mikkola15:34
xG 0.41–0.87 (32%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGallagher – Anderson – Dvorak10:03
xG 0.81–0.28 (75%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Armia – Evans – Newhook2:00
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Laine – Newhook – Heineman7:33
xG 0.19–0.15 (56%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Armia – Evans – Pezzetta4:52
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGuhle – Hutson16:04
xG 0.92–0.30 (75%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Savard – Struble7:16
xG 0.41–0.03 (94%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Struble – Hutson2:21
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).