Tue, Apr 1, 2025·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Detroit Red Wings 1, St. Louis Blues 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 03 | 09 | 17 | 02 | 121 |
| STL | 011 | 012 | 113 | 11 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 5:13DETJ.T. CompherAssists: Jonatan Berggren, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P3 19:31STLJordan KyrouAssists: Cam Fowler, Dylan Holloway · Snap, 0.14 xG1–1
- OT 3:27STLCam FowlerGWGAssists: Robert Thomas · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:58DETJeff Petry: Cross checking2 min
- P1 13:34DETSimon Edvinsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:01STLBrayden Schenn: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:05STLZachary Bolduc: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 8:33DETAlbert Johansson: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:54STLZachary Bolduc: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Kasper
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Compher – Berggren6:40
xG 0.38–0.11 (77%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Rasmussen – Raymond – Kasper12:48
xG 0.56–0.59 (49%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
- Smith – Watson – Motte3:45
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Kane – Larkin – DeBrincat13:39
xG 0.56–0.85 (40%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Seider15:15
xG 1.23–0.47 (73%)attempts 15–17goals 1–0
- Holl – Johansson10:06
xG 0.17–0.31 (36%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Petry – Edvinsson17:10
xG 0.26–1.33 (17%)attempts 11–25goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Thomas – Bolduc3:08
xG 0.22–0.03 (89%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Thomas – Neighbours4:52
xG 0.35–0.24 (60%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Bolduc – Snuggerud3:45
xG 0.11–0.00 (96%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Schenn – Kyrou – Holloway10:49
xG 0.40–0.41 (49%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Fowler14:21
xG 0.81–0.28 (74%)attempts 21–7goals 0–0
- Faulk – Broberg13:32
xG 0.80–0.51 (61%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Suter – Tucker10:04
xG 0.25–0.44 (37%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).