Thu, Apr 3, 2025·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Colorado Avalanche 7, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 210 | 314 | 28 | 732 |
| CBJ | 112 | 29 | 09 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:25COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 6:35CBJSean MonahanAssists: Dante Fabbro, Dmitri Voronkov · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 18:05COLBrock NelsonAssists: Cale Makar, Devon Toews · Snap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 4:16CBJZachary Aston-ReeseUnassisted · Snap, 0.01 xG2–2
- P2 7:56CBJBoone JennerAssists: Jack Johnson, Kent Johnson · Snap, 0.22 xG2–3
- P2 12:39COLCharlie CoyleAssists: Miles Wood, Erik Johnson · Snap, 0.08 xG3–3
- P2 14:02COLParker KellyGWGAssists: Jack Drury · Snap, 0.05 xG4–3
- P2 19:22COLCale MakarPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Charlie Coyle · Snap, 0.09 xG5–3
- P3 4:01COLDevon ToewsAssists: Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon · Snap, 0.01 xG6–3
- P3 5:49COLMiles WoodAssists: Charlie Coyle · Snap, 0.16 xG7–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:50CBJMathieu Olivier: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:27COLMiles Wood: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 14:52COLArtturi Lehkonen: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:09CBJZachary Aston-Reese: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 17:45COLLogan O'Connor: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Drury – O'Connor8:54
xG 0.54–0.26 (68%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
- Nelson – Vesey – Colton10:44
xG 0.59–0.32 (65%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Coyle – Wood – Kiviranta8:08
xG 0.38–0.17 (69%)attempts 9–11goals 2–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Nichushkin12:44
xG 0.84–0.69 (55%)attempts 17–17goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Middleton8:55
xG 0.65–0.16 (80%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Toews – Makar15:15
xG 0.95–0.70 (57%)attempts 18–20goals 5–2
- Johnson – Lindgren4:43
xG 0.44–0.24 (65%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Olivier – Danforth – Sillinger7:09
xG 0.10–0.12 (45%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Jenner – Johnson – Fantilli12:20
xG 0.54–0.59 (47%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Monahan – Marchenko – Voronkov12:25
xG 0.96–1.18 (45%)attempts 23–15goals 1–3
- Kuraly – Kunin – Aston-Reese9:10
xG 0.10–0.39 (20%)attempts 6–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Fabbro16:26
xG 0.92–0.62 (60%)attempts 23–15goals 2–1
- Gudbranson – Werenski2:42
xG 0.02–0.05 (32%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Gudbranson9:52
xG 0.33–0.47 (42%)attempts 9–11goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).