Fri, Apr 4, 2025·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Detroit Red Wings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 07 | 216 | 110 | 333 |
| DET | 27 | 27 | 17 | 521 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:03DETBen ChiarotAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Larkin · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 9:29DETMarco KasperAssists: Elmer Soderblom, Lucas Raymond · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 1:57CARJackson BlakeAssists: Seth Jarvis · Snap, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 9:05DETPatrick KaneUnassisted · Snap, 0.15 xG1–3
- P2 9:26DETMichael RasmussenGWGAssists: Tyler Motte · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–4
- P2 12:36CAREric RobinsonAssists: Justin Robidas, Jaccob Slavin · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 12:44CARBrent BurnsAssists: Jack Roslovic, Jaccob Slavin · Tip-in, 0.01 xG3–4
- P3 19:59DETAlex DeBrincatENAssists: Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.66 xG3–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 5:57CARSean Walker: Holding2 min
- P2 6:02DETAlbert Johansson: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:50CARJack Roslovic: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:10DETBen Chiarot: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Compher won the faceoff against Kotkaniemi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestAho – Jarvis – Blake13:15
xG 0.96–0.60 (61%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Martinook – Kotkaniemi – Stankoven9:09
xG 0.27–0.17 (61%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Jost – Robidas4:07
xG 0.03–0.22 (12%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Hall – Jankowski – Roslovic6:44
xG 0.13–0.34 (28%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestChatfield – Walker10:50
xG 0.37–0.31 (54%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Burns – Slavin14:18
xG 0.67–0.76 (47%)attempts 20–10goals 3–1
- Slavin – Chatfield2:22
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestKane – Larkin – DeBrincat9:34
xG 0.79–0.23 (77%)attempts 10–8goals 2–1
- Soderblom – Raymond – Kasper11:25
xG 0.71–0.31 (69%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Smith – Motte – Rasmussen5:12
xG 0.20–0.11 (64%)attempts 4–6goals 1–2
- Tarasenko – Compher – Berggren11:26
xG 0.20–0.44 (31%)attempts 4–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Seider17:55
xG 1.05–0.31 (77%)attempts 15–13goals 3–0
- Holl – Johansson9:25
xG 0.33–0.40 (45%)attempts 9–11goals 0–2
- Petry – Edvinsson16:34
xG 0.57–0.68 (46%)attempts 7–26goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).